The Hawks are 2-1 and fourth after a 121-114 home loss to Houston that turned on perimeter shooting. Four numbers show what that loss does and does not prove about this team.
The shooting hole
Locked On Hawks host Brad Rowland tracked Atlanta starting 5-27 from three against Houston. The Rockets led by as many as 20, and the Hawks never led by more than 7. Nickeil Alexander-Walker went 4-for-12 from deep and Onyeka Okongwu went 0-for-5. Rowland also pointed to a luck-adjusted projection from Dunc'd On that had Atlanta winning by 11. That is one outside read, and it does not change the final. It does say the loss looked more like a cold night than a broken team.
A five worth trusting
The closing group of McCollum, Alexander-Walker, Okongwu, Johnson and Daniels outscored opponents by 20.3 points per hundred possessions last season. Against Houston it finished the game and cut a 103-117 hole to 117-112 with a 9-0 run. Okongwu was still minus-13 in 26 minutes, so the number is no guarantee. What it supports is patience with the lineup. Jalen Johnson's 26 points and 16 assists on a night his team shot poorly back that up.
Room under the tax
Payroll sits at $198.5M, which leaves $1.9M before the $200.4M tax line. Johnson's $30.0M leads the sheet, ahead of Dyson Daniels at $25.0M. The pace projection of 55-27 comes from three games, so it proves little. It does show how tight the early table is, with 79 games left. The next test is Monday at Houston, then Miami and Cleveland at home.
Why did the Hawks lose to the Rockets?
Atlanta started 5-27 from three and trailed by as many as 20 before a late push fell short at 121-114. Locked On Hawks' Brad Rowland called it largely shooting variance.
Are the Hawks close to the luxury tax?
Payroll is $198.5M, about $1.9M under the $200.4M tax line. That keeps them over the cap but under the tax.
