2027 Draft Lottery
Bucks
Fourteen teams outside the playoff line, ranked from the worst record up, with the league's combinations: 14% at the top pick for the three worst, 0.5% for the fourteenth. The table gives the exact probability of every pick for every team, not just the top four, and the simulator draws the balls with the same odds. Every number here is computed from the standings in our database, refreshed every 30 minutes.
Tank board
exact odds · pick 1 to 14| # | Team | W-L | What if | 2027 pick | Combos | No. 1 | Top 4 | Exp. | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-1 | Swap rights involved | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 4.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 71.4 | |||||||||||
| 2 | 0-1 | own | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 4.8 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 22.0 | 49.5 | ||||||||||
| 3 | 0-1 | Swap rights involved | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 5.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 33.0 | 33.0 | |||||||||
| 4 | 0-1 | own | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 5.8 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 13.5 | 36.0 | 21.0 | ||||||||
| 5 | 0-1 | 0% to Hornets · keeps if 1-14 | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 6.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 21.6 | 33.6 | 12.6 | |||||||
| 6 | 0-1 | Swap rights involved | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 7.0 | |||||||
| 7 | 0-1 | own | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 7.3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 14.0 | 31.5 | 21.0 | 3.5 | |||||||
| 8 | 0-1 | own | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 7.7 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 21.0 | 31.5 | 14.0 | 1.5 | |||||||
| 9 | 0-1 | 86% to Hornets · keeps if 1-2 | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 8.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 8.0 | 0.5 | |||||||
| 10 | 0-1 | Swap rights with Rockets | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 8.7 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 12.6 | 33.6 | 21.6 | 3.6 | 0.1 | |||||||
| 11 | 0-1 | Swap rights involved | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 9.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 21.0 | 36.0 | 13.5 | 1.0 | ||||||||
| 12 | 0-1 | to Kings | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 9.7 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 5.5 | |||||||||
| 13 | 0-1 | to Rockets | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 10.2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 49.5 | 22.0 | ||||||||||
| 14 | 0-1 | own | 71.4 | 7.1% | 28.6% | 10.7 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 71.4 |
Combinations out of 1,000; the first four picks are drawn, a team can fall at most four spots, "Exp." is the expected pick. W and L add a game to any record and recompute the whole board exactly. Click a team name for its full distribution. Outside the playoff line means seeds 9 to 15 in each conference; the play-in is assumed to go to the better-placed teams until it is played.
Picks 15 to 30
playoff teams · worst record first
New York Knicks0-116
Denver Nuggets0-117
Philadelphia 76ers2-018
LA Clippers1-019
Memphis Grizzlies1-020
Atlanta Hawks1-021
Charlotte Hornets1-022
Los Angeles Lakers1-023
Indiana Pacers1-024
Detroit Pistons1-025
Toronto Raptors1-026
Houston Rockets1-027
Oklahoma City Thunder2-028
Minnesota Timberwolves1-029
Portland Trail Blazers1-030
Washington Wizards1-0Order by regular-season record, before tiebreakers and traded picks. Playoff seeding does not move a team's draft slot.
How the lottery works
Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1 to 14, give 1,001 four-ball combinations; 1,000 are assigned to the lottery teams by record, one is discarded. The three worst records get 140 combinations each (14.0%), the fourth 125, then 105, 90, 75, 60, 45, 30, 20, 15, 10 and 5. Four combinations are drawn for picks 1 to 4; the remaining teams pick 5 to 14 in reverse order of record. Tied records split their combinations evenly and the league flips a coin for the order. The table above is the exact result of that procedure, enumerated over every possible sequence of four winners, which is why the numbers add to 100% in every row and every column.
The lottery is held in May, after the play-in tournament fixes which fourteen teams are in. Follow the race on the standings, the pick ledger (who owns each pick, and the odds a protection triggers), the power rankings and each team's hub; every team's payroll against the cap is on the salaries page.