2026 Draft Lottery
Wizards
The 2027 lottery board builds itself from the first night of the 2026-27 season: the fourteen teams outside the playoff line, their combinations, the exact chance of every pick. Until then this is the 2026 board as the 2025-26 season left it, playoff teams taken from the games actually played, so the machinery is visible before the standings move. Every number here is computed from the standings in our database, refreshed every 30 minutes.
Tank board
exact odds · pick 1 to 14| # | Team | W-L | What if | Combos | No. 1 | Top 4 | Exp. | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17-65 | 140 | 14.0% | 52.1% | 3.7 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 47.9 | |||||||||||
| 2 | 19-63 | 140 | 14.0% | 52.1% | 3.9 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 27.8 | 20.1 | ||||||||||
| 3 | 20-62 | 140 | 14.0% | 52.1% | 4.1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 14.8 | 26.0 | 7.0 | |||||||||
| 4 | 22-60 | 115 | 11.5% | 45.2% | 4.6 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 27.1 | 17.9 | 2.4 | ||||||||
| 5 | 22-60 | 115 | 11.5% | 45.2% | 4.8 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 18.2 | 25.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | |||||||
| 6 | 25-57 | 90 | 9.0% | 37.2% | 5.5 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 29.7 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | |||||||
| 7 | 26-56 | 67.5 | 6.7% | 29.2% | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 19.8 | 35.7 | 13.9 | 1.4 | <0.1 | |||||||
| 8 | 26-56 | 67.5 | 6.7% | 29.2% | 6.9 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 32.8 | 31.0 | 6.6 | 0.4 | <0.1 | |||||||
| 9 | 31-51 | 45 | 4.5% | 20.3% | 8.0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 50.8 | 25.9 | 3.0 | 0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||
| 10 | 32-50 | 30 | 3.0% | 13.9% | 9.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 65.9 | 19.0 | 1.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||
| 11 | 37-45 | 20 | 2.0% | 9.4% | 10.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | <0.1 | ||||||||
| 12 | 42-40 | 15 | 1.5% | 7.1% | 11.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| 13 | 43-39 | 10 | 1.0% | 4.8% | 12.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 92.9 | 2.3 | ||||||||||
| 14 | 44-38 | 5 | 0.5% | 2.4% | 13.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 97.6 |
Combinations out of 1,000; the first four picks are drawn, a team can fall at most four spots, "Exp." is the expected pick. W and L add a game to any record and recompute the whole board exactly. Click a team name for its full distribution.
Picks 15 to 30
playoff teams · worst record firstOrder by regular-season record, before tiebreakers and traded picks. Playoff seeding does not move a team's draft slot.
How the lottery works
Fourteen ping-pong balls, numbered 1 to 14, give 1,001 four-ball combinations; 1,000 are assigned to the lottery teams by record, one is discarded. The three worst records get 140 combinations each (14.0%), the fourth 125, then 105, 90, 75, 60, 45, 30, 20, 15, 10 and 5. Four combinations are drawn for picks 1 to 4; the remaining teams pick 5 to 14 in reverse order of record. Tied records split their combinations evenly and the league flips a coin for the order. The table above is the exact result of that procedure, enumerated over every possible sequence of four winners, which is why the numbers add to 100% in every row and every column.
The lottery is held in May, after the play-in tournament fixes which fourteen teams are in. Follow the race on the standings, the power rankings and each team's hub; every team's payroll against the cap is on the salaries page.