Our own model · every game this season · what's still to come

Wins Lost

What absences have cost so far

Missed games by rotation players have cost NBA teams 12.6 wins so far this season. The Toronto Raptors have paid the most, 1.5 wins: 5-5 as played, a .646 team at full strength. The Knicks have barely lost anything.

Hardest hit
  1. 1
    Toronto Raptors5-5 now · .646 healthy
    −1.5wins
  2. 2
    Minnesota Timberwolves8-3 now · .858 healthy
    −1.4wins
  3. 3
    Golden State Warriors8-3 now · .856 healthy
    −1.4wins

How a missed game gets a price

  1. WEvery rotation player has a value in wins over a full season: how much worse his team was without him, weighted by his minutes. The same figure as The Value Board.
  2. 1/82Each game he misses costs his team one eighty-second of that value.
  3. ΣAdd every missed game this season. Wins as played plus wins lost gives the healthy record.

The healthy standings

Each conference as it stands today, and re-ranked with every lost win given back.

Bottom lineThe biggest climb: the Timberwolves are 5 in the West today and would be 2 with everyone healthy.

How to read this chart
Left column (NOW)
the real standings: place in the conference and record.
Right column (IF HEALTHY)
the same teams re-ranked as if nobody had missed a game, using the wins each absence cost.
The lines
connect each team's two places. A line going up means injuries have dragged that team down; thick lines moved two places or more. ▲ and ▼ show how many.
East
NOWIF HEALTHY65-54▲2Toronto Raptors: 5-5 now, 1.5 wins lost to absences, .646 if healthy94-78▲1Charlotte Hornets: 4-7 now, 0.9 wins lost to absences, .450 if healthy37-33–Detroit Pistons: 7-3 now, 0.7 wins lost to absences, .770 if healthy122-712–Orlando Magic: 2-7 now, 0.5 wins lost to absences, .275 if healthy104-79▲1Washington Wizards: 4-7 now, 0.5 wins lost to absences, .406 if healthy132-813–Brooklyn Nets: 2-8 now, 0.4 wins lost to absences, .237 if healthy19-21–Philadelphia 76ers: 9-2 now, 0.3 wins lost to absences, .846 if healthy113-811–Indiana Pacers: 3-8 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .293 if healthy75-67–Cleveland Cavaliers: 5-6 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .470 if healthy47-55▼1Atlanta Hawks: 7-5 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .597 if healthy84-610▼2Miami Heat: 4-6 now, 0.0 wins lost to absences, .405 if healthy28-22–Boston Celtics: 8-2 now, 0.0 wins lost to absences, .804 if healthy55-46▼1New York Knicks: 5-4 now, 0.0 wins lost to absences, .556 if healthy151-915–Milwaukee Bucks: 1-9 now, 0.0 wins lost to absences, .100 if healthy141-814–Chicago Bulls: 1-8 now, 0.0 wins lost to absences, .111 if healthy
West
NOWIF HEALTHY58-32▲3Minnesota Timberwolves: 8-3 now, 1.4 wins lost to absences, .858 if healthy48-33▲1Golden State Warriors: 8-3 now, 1.4 wins lost to absences, .856 if healthy38-21▲2Oklahoma City Thunder: 8-2 now, 1.2 wins lost to absences, .925 if healthy68-36–Houston Rockets: 8-3 now, 0.5 wins lost to absences, .776 if healthy29-25▼3San Antonio Spurs: 9-2 now, 0.3 wins lost to absences, .850 if healthy105-410–Denver Nuggets: 5-4 now, 0.3 wins lost to absences, .594 if healthy114-711–New Orleans Pelicans: 4-7 now, 0.3 wins lost to absences, .395 if healthy97-49–Dallas Mavericks: 7-4 now, 0.3 wins lost to absences, .661 if healthy123-612–Phoenix Suns: 3-6 now, 0.3 wins lost to absences, .362 if healthy151-914▲1Sacramento Kings: 1-9 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .124 if healthy141-915▼1Utah Jazz: 1-9 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .122 if healthy110-24▼3Los Angeles Lakers: 10-2 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .851 if healthy77-37–Memphis Grizzlies: 7-3 now, 0.2 wins lost to absences, .719 if healthy132-713–LA Clippers: 2-7 now, 0.1 wins lost to absences, .232 if healthy86-38–Portland Trail Blazers: 6-3 now, 0.1 wins lost to absences, .673 if healthy

The ledger

Every team's lost wins, broken down by who was missing.

Bottom lineThe Raptors have lost the most, 1.5 wins, led by Kawhi Leonard's 8 missed games; the Knicks the least, 0.0.

How to read this chart
The bar
how many wins the team has lost to absences this season; the number at the end is the total.
The slices
one per missing player; the wider the slice, the more his missed games cost. Faces appear on the bigger slices; hover or tap for name and games missed.
A win lost
is an estimate: what the player is worth over a full season, divided by 82, times the games he missed.
  1. Raptors
    Kawhi LeonardScottie Barnes
    1.5
  2. Timberwolves
    Donte DiVincenzo
    1.4
  3. Warriors
    Jimmy Butler IIIMoses MoodyKristaps Porzingis
    1.4
  4. Thunder
    Chet HolmgrenCason WallaceAlex Caruso
    1.2
  5. Hornets
    Kon KnueppelGrant WilliamsMoussa Diabate
    0.9
  6. Pistons
    0
    0.7
  7. Rockets
    Marcus SmartSteven Adams
    0.5
  8. Magic
    Jalen Suggs
    0.5
  9. Wizards
    Jamir WatkinsJustin Champagnie
    0.5
  10. Nets
    Egor Demin
    0.4
  11. Spurs
    23
    0.3
  12. Nuggets
    Cameron Johnson9
    0.3
  13. Pelicans
    Yves Missi
    0.3
  14. 76ers
    Dominick Barlow
    0.3
  15. Mavericks
    Santi Aldama
    0.3
  16. Suns
    11
    0.3
  17. Kings
    32
    0.2
  18. Pacers
    0.2
  19. Jazz
    23
    0.2
  20. Lakers
    Luka Doncic
    0.2
  21. Grizzlies
    0.2
  22. Cavaliers
    0.2
  23. Hawks
    Jalen Johnson
    0.2
  24. Clippers
    0.1
  25. Trail Blazers
    0.1
  26. Heat
    0.0
  27. Celtics
    0.0
  28. Knicks
    0.0
  29. Bucks
    0.0
  30. Bulls
    0.0

The costliest absences

The players whose missed games have cost their team the most wins this season.

  1. 1Donte DiVincenzo
    Donte DiVincenzoMIN · 11 games missed · 0.12 wins a game
    −1.3
  2. 2Kawhi Leonard
    Kawhi LeonardTOR · 8 games missed · 0.16 wins a game
    −1.3
  3. 3Chet Holmgren
    Chet HolmgrenOKC · 7 games missed · 0.11 wins a game
    −0.8
  4. 4Jimmy Butler III
    Jimmy Butler IIIGSW · 11 games missed · 0.06 wins a game
    −0.7
  5. 50
    Jalen DurenDET · 8 games missed · 0.07 wins a game
    −0.6
  6. 6Moses Moody
    Moses MoodyGSW · 11 games missed · 0.04 wins a game
    −0.4
  7. 7Kon Knueppel
    Kon KnueppelCHA · 10 games missed · 0.04 wins a game
    −0.4
  8. 8Jalen Suggs
    Jalen SuggsORL · 6 games missed · 0.06 wins a game
    −0.4
  9. 9Jamir Watkins
    Jamir WatkinsWAS · 11 games missed · 0.03 wins a game
    −0.3
  10. 1023
    Tobias HarrisSAS · 11 games missed · 0.02 wins a game
    −0.3
  11. 11Marcus Smart
    Marcus SmartHOU · 3 games missed · 0.09 wins a game
    −0.3
  12. 12Grant Williams
    Grant WilliamsCHA · 11 games missed · 0.02 wins a game
    −0.3
Numbers to quoteFree to cite with a link · as of Mon, Nov 9
  1. 12.6

    Absences of rotation players have cost NBA teams 12.6 wins combined through 154 games this season, by Hoops Nightly's count.

  2. 1.5

    The Toronto Raptors have lost 1.5 wins to absences, the most in the NBA: 5-5 as played, a .646 team with everyone healthy.

  3. ▲3

    With every player healthy, the Minnesota Timberwolves would sit 2nd in the West, not 5th.

30 rows · 2026-11-09
Writing about this? Free to reuse, also commercially, with a credit. CC BY 4.0 Data licenseSource: Hoops Nightly, Wins Lost (as of Mon, Nov 9): https://hoopsnightly.com/wins-lost (CC BY 4.0)

More from our own data

What to keep in mind

  • Any game a rotation player does not play counts, whatever the reason: injury, illness, rest or suspension.
  • Values come from last season's on/off, stabilised by minutes. Rookies and players with little time last season have no value yet, so their absences cost nothing here.
  • Absences add up as if each one were alone; when three starters sit together the real cost can be larger or smaller.
  • A healthy record is an estimate in wins, not a prediction of what would have happened in any one game.

Full method · Injury impact for the rest of the season · The Injury Wave