How a missed game gets a price
- WEvery rotation player has a value in wins over a full season: how much worse his team was without him, weighted by his minutes. The same figure as The Value Board.
- 1/82Each game he misses costs his team one eighty-second of that value.
- ΣAdd every missed game this season. Wins as played plus wins lost gives the healthy record.
The healthy standings
Each conference as it stands today, and re-ranked with every lost win given back.
↳Bottom lineThe biggest climb: the Timberwolves are 5 in the West today and would be 2 with everyone healthy.
?How to read this chart
- Left column (NOW)
- the real standings: place in the conference and record.
- Right column (IF HEALTHY)
- the same teams re-ranked as if nobody had missed a game, using the wins each absence cost.
- The lines
- connect each team's two places. A line going up means injuries have dragged that team down; thick lines moved two places or more. ▲ and ▼ show how many.
The ledger
Every team's lost wins, broken down by who was missing.
↳Bottom lineThe Raptors have lost the most, 1.5 wins, led by Kawhi Leonard's 8 missed games; the Knicks the least, 0.0.
?How to read this chart
- The bar
- how many wins the team has lost to absences this season; the number at the end is the total.
- The slices
- one per missing player; the wider the slice, the more his missed games cost. Faces appear on the bigger slices; hover or tap for name and games missed.
- A win lost
- is an estimate: what the player is worth over a full season, divided by 82, times the games he missed.
The costliest absences
The players whose missed games have cost their team the most wins this season.
- 1
Donte DiVincenzoMIN · 11 games missed · 0.12 wins a game−1.3 - 2
Kawhi LeonardTOR · 8 games missed · 0.16 wins a game−1.3 - 3
Chet HolmgrenOKC · 7 games missed · 0.11 wins a game−0.8 - 4
Jimmy Butler IIIGSW · 11 games missed · 0.06 wins a game−0.7 - 5Jalen DurenDET · 8 games missed · 0.07 wins a game−0.6
- 6
Moses MoodyGSW · 11 games missed · 0.04 wins a game−0.4 - 7
Kon KnueppelCHA · 10 games missed · 0.04 wins a game−0.4 - 8
Jalen SuggsORL · 6 games missed · 0.06 wins a game−0.4 - 9
Jamir WatkinsWAS · 11 games missed · 0.03 wins a game−0.3 - 10Tobias HarrisSAS · 11 games missed · 0.02 wins a game−0.3
- 11
Marcus SmartHOU · 3 games missed · 0.09 wins a game−0.3 - 12
Grant WilliamsCHA · 11 games missed · 0.02 wins a game−0.3
- 12.6
Absences of rotation players have cost NBA teams 12.6 wins combined through 154 games this season, by Hoops Nightly's count.
- 1.5
The Toronto Raptors have lost 1.5 wins to absences, the most in the NBA: 5-5 as played, a .646 team with everyone healthy.
- ▲3
With every player healthy, the Minnesota Timberwolves would sit 2nd in the West, not 5th.
Source: Hoops Nightly, Wins Lost (as of Mon, Nov 9): https://hoopsnightly.com/wins-lost (CC BY 4.0)More from our own data
- Milestone TrackerCareer marks about to fall, and the game they should fall in
- Defense vs PositionWhat every defense allows to guards, forwards and centers
- On/off calculatorAny team with or without any player, in net rating
- The Injury WaveRotation minutes lost to injury, day by day
- Day-to-day, measuredHow often a day-to-day player misses the next game
- The LedgerTrade and signing reports, checked against what happened
- The MarginRole changes and lineup anomalies the box score hides
- The Clutch MapWhere shots go, and who makes them, in the last five minutes of close games
- ComebacksThe biggest rallies, and how safe a lead really is
- The Real FiveThe best lineups with garbage time taken out
- The Report CardHow much warning every team gives before a player sits
- Lineup SurprisesExpected starters who didn't start, and every team's starting-five barcode
- The Value BoardWhat every player costs per win
- The Second NightWhat really changes on the second night of a back-to-back
What to keep in mind
- Any game a rotation player does not play counts, whatever the reason: injury, illness, rest or suspension.
- Values come from last season's on/off, stabilised by minutes. Rookies and players with little time last season have no value yet, so their absences cost nothing here.
- Absences add up as if each one were alone; when three starters sit together the real cost can be larger or smaller.
- A healthy record is an estimate in wins, not a prediction of what would have happened in any one game.
Full method · Injury impact for the rest of the season · The Injury Wave


