Hoops Nightly
Our own play-by-play · the score, minute by minute · 1,358 games

Comebacks

How safe is a lead?

A 15-point halftime lead holds 94% of the time, a 10-point one 88%. The biggest rally this season: the 76ers came back from 29 down against the Cavaliers, with a win chance that bottomed out at 1 in 2,500.

Biggest comeback · 2026-2776ers114–106vs Cavaliers−29 · 1 in 2,500Q1Q2Q3Q4
−29biggest deficit1/2,500lowest win chance1lead changes

How we read a game

  1. 48Every scoring play is replayed in order, and the margin is stored at the end of every minute (overtime included).
  2. WPAt every play we estimate the win chance from margin and time left. The eventual winner's lowest value is its comeback odds.
  3. 10+No team rate is shown on fewer than 10 chances. Two seasons pooled: 2026-27: 154 games · 2025-26: 1204 of 1230 games.

The comeback wall

The eight biggest rallies since the start of 2025-26.

Bottom lineBiggest rally since 2025-26: the 76ers came back from 29 down against the Cavaliers, low point at 1:00 left in Q2.

How to read this chart
The line
the winner's score margin, minute by minute, from tip-off on the left to the final buzzer on the right.
The middle line
a tied game. Below it the eventual winner was losing (drawn in the loser's color); above it, winning.
The white dot
the biggest deficit. The thin vertical lines split the four quarters; a shaded tail is overtime.
Lowest win chance
our estimate of the winner's odds at its worst moment, from the margin and the time left. It can come after the dot, when less time is left.
  1. −2976ers114–106vs CavaliersThu, Oct 22, 2026 · low point 1:00 left in Q2
    Lowest win chance1 in 2,500
  2. −25Spurs116–112vs ClippersFri, Mar 6, 2026 · low point 10:00 left in Q3
    Lowest win chance1 in 1,111
  3. −25Pelicans133–128 OTvs RocketsThu, Dec 18, 2025 · low point 11:00 left in Q3
    Lowest win chance1 in 714
  4. −25Warriors112–95vs LakersFri, Oct 30, 2026 · low point end of Q1
    Lowest win chance1 in 102
  5. −24Clippers114–113at PacersFri, Mar 27, 2026 · low point 10:00 left in Q2
    Lowest win chance1 in 833
  6. −24Bulls113–111vs 76ersTue, Nov 4, 2025 · low point 6:00 left in Q2
    Lowest win chance1 in 455
  7. −23Nuggets141–135 OTvs PelicansSat, Oct 24, 2026 · low point 7:00 left in Q2
    Lowest win chance1 in 10,000+
  8. −23Nets107–105at PistonsSat, Mar 7, 2026 · low point 9:00 left in Q3
    Lowest win chance1 in 2,000

How safe is your lead?

How often the team ahead by at least this much went on to win, at each point of the game.

Bottom lineA 15-point halftime lead held 94% of the time; up 20 after three quarters, 100%.

How to read this chart
Rows and columns
each row is a lead size (10+ means ahead by ten or more); each column is a moment of the game, from the end of the first quarter to two minutes left.
The big number
the share of those leads that held until the end. The small one is the count: games the leader won / games with that lead at that moment.
The color
red means the lead was lost often (under 80% held), green means it almost always held. Cells with fewer than 10 games are left blank.
LeadEnd of Q1HalftimeEnd of Q36 min left2 min left
5+71%561/79081%799/99089%917/102895%994/105099%1015/1023
10+77%287/37188%522/59195%671/70599%736/747100%739/739
15+89%109/12294%289/30999%453/459100%507/507100%517/517
20+93%37/4097%150/154100%265/265100%320/320100%337/337
25+100%10/10100%67/67100%153/153100%183/183100%185/185
under 80% held80–89%90–96%97% or more

Rally or collapse

Bottom lineThe Thunder turn 52% of 10-point deficits into wins and blow 10% of their 10-point leads; the Pacers sit at the other end (6% and 58%).

How to read this chart
Left bar
leads blown: the share of games where the team was up 10 or more and still lost. Shorter is better.
Right bar
deficits overturned: the share of games where it was down 10 or more and still won. Longer is better.
The small numbers
the count behind each share, for example 3/20 means 3 times out of 20 chances.
The order
best at the top: teams that rally a lot and rarely collapse.
  1. 7/7210%OKC52%13/25
  2. 10/6815%BOS44%18/41
  3. 7/6511%DET39%14/36
  4. 6/649%LAL36%16/45
  5. 15/7520%SAS44%11/25
  6. 8/5714%NYK36%16/45
  7. 10/5917%CLE38%20/52
  8. 9/5716%MIN33%14/43
  9. 14/6322%DEN39%14/36
  10. 8/5614%ATL30%15/50
  11. 13/6022%HOU35%13/37
  12. 11/4922%ORL35%19/55
  13. 11/5221%PHI32%16/50
  14. 10/4821%POR29%16/55
  15. 13/5524%GSW31%18/58
  16. 13/5723%TOR29%14/49
  17. 16/5231%LAC28%13/46
  18. 14/5725%PHX22%10/46
  19. 8/3126%CHI22%15/67
  20. 14/5824%CHA19%9/47
  21. 14/5725%MIA14%6/44
  22. 10/3529%DAL16%10/64
  23. 14/4134%MIL16%10/64
  24. 17/4141%NOP17%11/63
  25. 10/2638%SAC10%7/69
  26. 12/3040%WAS9%7/74
  27. 19/3850%UTA17%12/72
  28. 14/3540%BKN6%4/65
  29. 23/4749%MEM11%6/53
  30. 21/3658%IND6%4/65

The closers

Games within five points with five minutes left.

Bottom lineBest closers: the Lakers, +2.5 points in the last five minutes (15-5); worst: the Nets, −3.5.

How to read this chart
The bar
how many points the team wins (right of center, team color) or loses (left of center, red) the last five minutes by, on average.
The number and record
the same average, then how those close games ended: wins-losses.
Why it matters
this is the crunch-time part of the game only, so a team can have a losing record and still close well.
  1. 1Lakers+2.5 · 15-5
  2. 2Thunder+2.4 · 18-7
  3. 376ers+2.1 · 19-9
  4. 4Raptors+1.9 · 14-11
  5. 5Bucks+1.8 · 13-11
  6. 6Knicks+1.5 · 14-12
  7. 7Celtics+1.1 · 12-11
  8. 8Cavaliers+1.1 · 21-10
  9. 9Spurs+0.7 · 14-10
  10. 10Hawks+0.6 · 13-11
  11. 11Trail Blazers+0.6 · 13-13
  12. 12Wizards+0.5 · 8-7
  13. 13Magic+0.5 · 18-13
  14. 14Timberwolves+0.4 · 9-8
  15. 15Heat+0.1 · 13-13
  16. 16Mavericks+0.0 · 16-17
  17. 17Pistons−0.4 · 14-10
  18. 18Warriors−0.6 · 8-12
  19. 19Grizzlies−0.8 · 13-15
  20. 20Suns−0.8 · 10-10
  21. 21Bulls−0.8 · 12-14
  22. 22Nuggets−1.0 · 13-15
  23. 23Pelicans−1.1 · 10-18
  24. 24Kings−1.1 · 8-13
  25. 25Hornets−1.4 · 7-13
  26. 26Clippers−1.4 · 8-17
  27. 27Pacers−1.5 · 9-14
  28. 28Rockets−1.5 · 12-18
  29. 29Jazz−1.9 · 13-14
  30. 30Nets−3.5 · 4-20

The longest runs

The biggest unanswered scoring runs since the start of 2025-26, and whether they were enough.

  1. 31–0 Raptors vs MagicSun, Mar 29, 2026 · won
  2. 27–0 Bulls vs BucksSun, Mar 1, 2026 · won
  3. 24–0 Lakers vs SunsSun, Dec 14, 2025 · won
  4. 24–0 Suns vs RocketsTue, Apr 7, 2026 · lost anyway
  5. 24–0 Nuggets vs PelicansWed, Oct 29, 2025 · won
  6. 23–0 Pistons vs CelticsTue, Oct 20, 2026 · won
  7. 23–0 Knicks vs JazzFri, Dec 5, 2025 · won
  8. 22–0 Thunder vs JazzFri, Nov 21, 2025 · won
Numbers to quoteFree to cite with a link · as of Mon, Nov 9
  1. 94%

    NBA teams leading by 15 or more at halftime went on to win 94% of the time (289 of 309 games since the start of 2025-26, Hoops Nightly play-by-play).

  2. −29

    The biggest comeback of the 2026-27 season: the 76ers trailed the Cavaliers by 29 on Thu, Oct 22 and won 114–106. Their chance of winning bottomed out at about 1 in 2,500.

  3. 52%

    The Thunder have won 13 of the 25 games in which they trailed by 10 or more since the start of 2025-26, the best rate in the league.

30 rows · 2026-11-09
Writing about this? Free to reuse, also commercially, with a credit. CC BY 4.0 Data licenseSource: Hoops Nightly, Comebacks (as of Mon, Nov 9): https://hoopsnightly.com/comebacks (CC BY 4.0)

More from our own data

What to keep in mind

  • Coverage: 2026-27: 154 games · 2025-26: 1204 of 1230 games. Older games are still being added from the play-by-play and the numbers update as they arrive.
  • The win chance comes from a simple model of margin and time left, the same for every team. It ignores who has the ball and who is on the floor, so read it as an order of magnitude.
  • Overtime counts toward the last five minutes in the closers table.

Full method · The Second Night · The Real Five