Season simulator
for a top-six seed
Every team gets one strength number, every remaining game is played 10,000 times with home court worth 2.5 points, and the standings are sorted each time. What comes out is a distribution, not a prediction: expected wins with the 10th-to-90th percentile range, the chance of finishing in the top six (straight to the playoffs), seventh to tenth (the play-in) or eleventh and below. Before opening night the strength is 60% of the 2025-26 net rating, so the table is last season's hierarchy with the gaps shrunk; it starts moving with the first box scores. The formula is on the methods page.
Eastern Conference
sorted by expected wins| Team | Strength | Exp. wins | Range | Top 6 | Play-in | Out | No. 1 | Seed distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celtics#1 | +5.0 | 52.7 | 47–58 | 98% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 36% | |
 Pistons#2 | +5.0 | 52.6 | 47–58 | 97% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 37% | |
 Knicks#3 | +3.8 | 49.5 | 44–55 | 90% | 10% | 0.1% | 13% | |
 Hornets#4 | +2.9 | 47.4 | 42–53 | 77% | 23% | 0.4% | 6.2% | |
 Cavaliers#5 | +2.5 | 46.3 | 41–52 | 69% | 30% | 0.7% | 3.8% | |
 Raptors#6 | +1.7 | 44.3 | 39–50 | 50% | 48% | 1.8% | 1.7% | |
 Hawks#7 | +1.3 | 43.4 | 38–49 | 42% | 56% | 2.8% | 1.0% | |
 Heat#8 | +1.3 | 43.3 | 38–49 | 41% | 56% | 3.1% | 0.8% | |
 Magic#9 | +0.4 | 41.0 | 35–46 | 22% | 70% | 8.4% | 0.2% | |
 76ers#10 | -0.1 | 39.8 | 34–45 | 15% | 73% | 13% | 0.1% | |
 Bulls#11 | -3.2 | 31.9 | 26–37 | 0.3% | 16% | 84% | 0.0% | |
 Bucks#12 | -3.7 | 30.7 | 25–36 | 0.1% | 10% | 90% | 0.0% | |
 Pacers#13 | -4.7 | 28.2 | 23–33 | 0.0% | 3.4% | 97% | 0.0% | |
 Nets#14 | -6.0 | 24.7 | 20–30 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 100% | 0.0% | |
 Wizards#15 | -7.1 | 22.4 | 17–27 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 100% | 0.0% |
Western Conference
sorted by expected wins| Team | Strength | Exp. wins | Range | Top 6 | Play-in | Out | No. 1 | Seed distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder#1 | +6.7 | 56.8 | 52–62 | 100% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 69% | |
 Spurs#2 | +5.0 | 52.9 | 47–58 | 99% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 23% | |
 Rockets#3 | +3.2 | 48.3 | 43–54 | 90% | 10% | 0.2% | 3.8% | |
 Nuggets#4 | +3.1 | 47.7 | 42–53 | 87% | 12% | 0.3% | 3.3% | |
 Timberwolves#5 | +1.9 | 44.2 | 39–50 | 62% | 36% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
 Suns#6 | +0.8 | 42.3 | 37–48 | 44% | 51% | 5.5% | 0.2% | |
 Lakers#7 | +0.9 | 42.2 | 37–48 | 43% | 52% | 5.9% | 0.2% | |
 Clippers#8 | +0.7 | 41.7 | 36–47 | 38% | 55% | 7.0% | 0.1% | |
 Warriors#9 | -0.3 | 39.3 | 34–45 | 20% | 63% | 17% | 0.0% | |
 Trail Blazers#10 | -0.2 | 38.9 | 33–44 | 17% | 64% | 19% | 0.0% | |
 Pelicans#11 | -2.6 | 33.1 | 28–38 | 1.3% | 25% | 74% | 0.0% | |
 Mavericks#12 | -3.1 | 31.8 | 27–37 | 0.7% | 17% | 83% | 0.0% | |
 Grizzlies#13 | -3.6 | 30.4 | 25–36 | 0.3% | 11% | 89% | 0.0% | |
 Jazz#14 | -4.9 | 27.0 | 22–32 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 98% | 0.0% | |
 Kings#15 | -5.8 | 25.1 | 20–30 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 99% | 0.0% |
The players a season depends on
injury impact, every team →Same simulation, one player removed: the team's strength drops by his minutes share times his on/off net rating difference from 2025-26. The number is the expected wins his team gives up over a full season without him.
| Player | Team | On/off | Minutes share | Strength lost | Wins lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokić | Nuggets | +10.8 / -2.9 | 57% | -7.8 | 19.0 |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | +17.0 / +0.6 | 47% | -7.8 | 18.9 |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | +7.5 / -6.3 | 53% | -7.3 | 17.4 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | +16.3 / +3.6 | 57% | -7.2 | 17.3 |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | +10.5 / -1.4 | 57% | -6.8 | 16.4 |
| Dyson Daniels | Hawks | +6.2 / -4.3 | 64% | -6.7 | 16.4 |
| Derrick White | Celtics | +11.3 / +1.7 | 67% | -6.4 | 15.5 |
| Bam AdebayoDay-To-Day | Heat | +6.1 / -3.4 | 60% | -5.7 | 14.0 |
| Julian Champagnie | Spurs | +12.4 / +2.8 | 57% | -5.5 | 13.5 |
| Donte DiVincenzoOut | Timberwolves | +6.2 / -2.0 | 63% | -5.2 | 12.9 |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | +16.1 / +6.2 | 50% | -5.0 | 11.6 |
| Moussa Diabaté | Hornets | +10.5 / +0.6 | 48% | -4.8 | 11.7 |
Rule of thumb behind the last column: one point of net rating is worth about 2.7 wins over 82 games.
Not a betting product: these are the outcomes of a formula applied to a schedule, published so the reasoning can be checked, and they change every morning as the games do.