Fantasy and DFS come down to three things: who plays the minutes, against whom, and at what speed. This page answers all three for tonight, from the box scores and the injury report.
- 22players ruled out tonight, 16 more in doubt. Every absence moves minutes to someone else.
- 102.5possessions expected in Bulls-Timberwolves, the fastest game tonight (league average 99.8).
- 5teams on a back-to-back: Pelicans, Cavaliers, Heat, Grizzlies, Bulls. Watch for rest days and shorter minutes.
Tonight's top plays
The players whose night looks better than usual. The big number is our fantasy-points estimate for tonight; the bar shows it against what he scores on a normal night. Every tag says why, and how many points it adds or takes away.
- 1
Cade CunninghamG · DET @ MIA · 8:00 PM ET · ~35 min55.2FP tonight+7.6vs usual🎯Soft D vs guards+4.8⏱+1 min role+1.2🔥Hot lately+1.1 - 2
Nikola JokicC · DEN @ NOP · 7:00 PM ET · ~36 min61.6FP tonight+6.1vs usual🎯Soft D vs centers+5.2🔥Hot lately+1.8⏱−1 min role−0.9 - 3
LaMelo BallG · MIN vs CHI · 8:00 PM ET · ~30 min41.3FP tonight+5.8vs usual⏱+2 min role+3.0🎯Soft D vs guards+1.3⚡Fast game+1.0🔥Hot lately+0.5 - 4
Daniss JenkinsG · DET @ MIA · 8:00 PM ET · ~30 min32.7FP tonight+5.7vs usual🎯Soft D vs guards+2.8⏱+2 min, Duren out+2.3 - 5
Ausar ThompsonG · DET @ MIA · 8:00 PM ET · ~30 min37.0FP tonight+5.5vs usual🎯Soft D vs guards+3.2⏱+2 min role+1.7 - 6
Ayo DosunmuG · MIN vs CHI · 8:00 PM ET · ~33 min38.0FP tonight+5.1vs usual⏱+2 min, Edwards out+2.6🎯Soft D vs guards+1.2⚡Fast game+0.9 - 7
Kevin HuerterG · DET @ MIA · 8:00 PM ET · ~25 min24.1FP tonight+5.0vs usual🎯Soft D vs guards+2.1⏱+2 min role+1.8🔥Hot lately+0.9 - 8
Day'Ron SharpeC · BKN @ MEM · 8:00 PM ET · ~24 min30.0FP tonight+3.6vs usual🎯Soft D vs centers+1.6🔥Hot lately+1.2⏱+1 min role+0.7 - 9
Cameron JohnsonF · DEN @ NOP · 7:00 PM ET · ~30 min25.7FP tonight+3.1vs usual🎯Soft D vs forwards+2.1⏱+2 min role+1.3 - 10
Kyrie IrvingG · DAL @ CLE · 7:30 PM ET · ~31 min38.4FP tonight+2.6vs usual🎯Soft D vs guards+2.3⏱+1 min role+1.2🔥Cold lately−1.0
Highest estimates tonight the biggest totals, whatever the boost
JokicDEN @ NOP61.6CunninghamDET @ MIA55.2
MurrayDEN @ NOP44.3BallMIN vs CHI41.3
FlaggDAL @ CLE40.8
AdebayoMIA vs DET38.9IrvingDAL @ CLE38.4
WilliamsonNOP vs DEN38.0How the estimate is built
We start from a normal night: his fantasy points per minute this season times his usual minutes. Then four adjustments, each shown as a tag: 🔥 form (points per minute over the last five games, weighted 35%), ⏱ minutes (his recent role, plus the minutes he gained in past games without tonight's absent teammate, minus 3% on a back-to-back), ⚡ pace (possessions expected in this game against the league average) and 🎯 matchup (what tonight's defense allows to his position, counted at half strength because early-season samples are noisy). The tags add up to the gap between "usual" and "tonight". Players listed as questionable stay out of the top plays. It is an estimate from box scores, not a promise, and it uses no betting lines or salaries.
Who gets the minutes
When a regular is out, his minutes go somewhere. These are the players who gain the most, measured in the games their team already played without him.
Pelicans
Timberwolves
Pistons
Cavaliers
GrizzliesGame environments
Every game ranked from best to worst for fantasy scoring, on a 0-100 scale: more possessions and softer defenses mean more points, rebounds and assists to go around. 65 and up is a game to stack players from; below 42, keep your exposure light. No betting lines, only what the teams have done.
NuggetsatPelicans
BullsatTimberwolves
MavericksatCavaliersPistonsat
Heat
NetsatGrizzliesHot hands
Players on tonight's slate scoring the most fantasy points above their own season average over the last five games. The bars are those five games, oldest to newest.
Softest matchups
Which position faces the defense that gives up the most fantasy points to it, compared with the league average.
Cade Cunningham47.7 FP+18%
Nikola Jokic55.5 FP+18%
Aaron Gordon23.3 FP+13%
Kyrie Irving35.8 FP+12%
Zion Williamson36.9 FP+11%
Daniel Gafford23.0 FP
The injury board
Who is out and who is in doubt, game by game. Read every 15 minutes from the league injury report.
DEN CLEThe words, plainly
Words on this page, in plain English
- Estimate
- our fantasy-points number for tonight: a normal night, adjusted for form, minutes, pace and matchup. Each tag shows how many points it moves.
- Usual
- what he scores on a normal night this season: fantasy points per minute times his usual minutes.
- Fantasy points (FP)
- the DraftKings scale: 1 per point, 1.25 per rebound, 1.5 per assist, 2 per steal or block, 0.5 per three, minus 0.5 per turnover.
- Pace
- possessions per 48 minutes. A fast game has more shots, rebounds and assists to go around.
- Softest / toughest
- where a defense ranks in points allowed per 100 possessions. "3rd softest" is good news for the players facing it; "3rd toughest" is bad news.
- Game score
- our 0-100 mix of pace and defense for the game. 65 and up: prime spot, stack it. 52-64: good. 42-51: neutral. Below 42: tough.
- Back-to-back (B2B)
- a team that also played yesterday. Stars rest more and minutes shrink.
- Minutes swing
- how many more minutes a player gets in the games his team played without the absent regular.