Hoops Nightly
Tonight · Saturday, November 14 · updated 2 min ago · free

DFS Lab

What this is

A projection for every player on the slate (102 tonight), with a realistic floor and ceiling and the reasons behind each number. A lineup builder for DraftKings and FanDuel that runs in your browser. And a public scorecard: every morning we grade last night's projections against the real box scores.

Tonight in three namesCade CunninghamBest playCade CunninghamDET @ MIA · biggest boost vs his usual night+7.6Zion WilliamsonSafestZion WilliamsonNOP vs DEN · highest floor for his projection31.3Daniss JenkinsMost upsideDaniss JenkinsDET @ MIA · widest range above the estimate51.6
5games102projections—avg miss last night

Late news

Every injury-report change that touches tonight's slate, translated into DFS: who is out, who gets the minutes, what it is worth. Rotation players only. Checked every 5 minutes in the 90 before tip-off.

  1. OUT
    Jarrett Allen CLE · DAL @ CLEMinutes go to Mario Hezonja +4 min · 19.3 FP, Tyrese Proctor +3 min · 18.5 FP, Thomas Bryant +2 min · 14.7 FP
  2. IN
    Yves Missi NOP · DEN @ NOPTeammates lose the extra minutes. DEN @ NOP, 7:00 PM ET.
  3. DOUBT
    Jerami Grant MEM · BKN @ MEM24 min a night. Check again before lock. BKN @ MEM, 8:00 PM ET.
  4. OUT
    Ty Jerome MEM · BKN @ MEM31 minutes a night to redistribute. BKN @ MEM, 8:00 PM ET.
  5. DOUBT
    James Harden CLE · DAL @ CLE33 min a night. Check again before lock. DAL @ CLE, 7:30 PM ET.
  6. DOUBT
    Donovan Mitchell CLE · DAL @ CLE33 min a night. Check again before lock. DAL @ CLE, 7:30 PM ET.
  7. OUT
    Evan Mobley CLE · DAL @ CLEMinutes go to Mario Hezonja +4 min · 19.3 FP, Tyrese Proctor +3 min · 18.5 FP, Thomas Bryant +2 min · 14.7 FP
  8. DOUBT
    Peyton Watson CLE · DAL @ CLE28 min a night. Check again before lock. DAL @ CLE, 7:30 PM ET.
  9. DOUBT
    Giannis Antetokounmpo MIA · DET @ MIA32 min a night. Check again before lock. DET @ MIA, 8:00 PM ET.
  10. DOUBT
    Nic Claxton CHI · CHI @ MIN18 min a night. Check again before lock. CHI @ MIN, 8:00 PM ET.
  11. DOUBT
    Norman Powell CHI · CHI @ MIN29 min a night. Check again before lock. CHI @ MIN, 8:00 PM ET.
  12. UPGRADE
    Klay Thompson MIA · DET @ MIA25 min a night. Check again before lock. DET @ MIA, 8:00 PM ET.

Every projection, tonight

102 players, sorted the way you want. The bar is each player's realistic range: the left end is a bad night (only 15% of his games go lower), the right end a big night (only 10% go higher), the bright mark our estimate. Tap a player for his full card: season chart, reasons, news.

#PlayerMin ?Range ?Proj ?vs usual ?
1Nikola JokicC · DEN @ NOP36478061.6+6.1
2Cade CunninghamG · DET @ MIA35377855.2+7.6
3Giannis AntetokounmpoF · MIA vs DETDay-To-Day32427054.3+0.8
4Jamal MurrayG · DEN @ NOP35326044.3−1.4
5LaMelo BallG · MIN vs CHI30275941.3+5.8
6Donovan MitchellG · CLE vs DALDay-To-Day34335241.3+0.4
7Cooper FlaggF · DAL @ CLE33265940.8−7.2
8Bam AdebayoC-F · MIA vs DET35305038.9−1.3
9Kyrie IrvingG · DAL @ CLE31285138.4+2.6
10Zion WilliamsonF · NOP vs DEN32314638.0+1.1
11Ayo DosunmuG · MIN vs CHI33265338.0+5.1
12Michael Porter Jr.F · BKN @ MEM33275037.1+0.3
13Ausar ThompsonG-F · DET @ MIA30274937.0+5.5
14Julius RandleF-C · BKN @ MEM32274836.4+0.5
15Cameron BoozerF · MEM vs BKN30245135.8−1.6
16Davion MitchellG · MIA vs DET37284434.8−2.1
17Daniss JenkinsG · DET @ MIA30175232.7+5.7
18Jaden McDanielsF · MIN vs CHI33244031.2−2.1
19Jeremiah FearsG · NOP vs DEN30174931.2+0.2
20James HardenG · CLE vs DALDay-To-Day31234131.0−3.4
21Duncan RobinsonF · DET @ MIA33214230.2+1.6
22Day'Ron SharpeC · BKN @ MEM24184430.0+3.6
23Josh GiddeyG · CHI @ MIN30214129.7−1.5
24Saddiq BeyF · NOP vs DEN28194229.6+2.3
25Paul ReedF · DET @ MIA28174428.7+1.4
Showing the top 25 of 102. Search a name or pick a game to see everyone in it.

Stacks & pairs

Some teammates have their big nights together (a fast game lifts both); others share one ball, so when one goes off the other goes quiet. Measured on every game they played together in the last two seasons. In tournaments, play the first kind together and split up the second. The builder does it for you in Balanced and Upside.

DEN @ NOP69/100
Play together

rise together · 35 games together

Split up

compete for touches · 68 games together

CHI @ MIN68/100
Play together

big nights together · 13 games together

Split up

compete for touches · 64 games together

DAL @ CLE54/100
Play together

rise together · 10 games together

Split up

compete for touches · 12 games together

DET @ MIA52/100
Play together

big nights together · 11 games together

Split up

steal each other's touches · 23 games together

BKN @ MEM51/100
Play together

rise together · 11 games together

Split up

compete for touches · 42 games together

Who should I play?

Stuck between two players? Pick them and we run tonight's numbers head to head: the chance each one scores more, the safer one, the one with the bigger night in him, and (with salaries loaded) the better value.

Pick two players to see who wins tonight.

Lineup builder

Load tonight's salaries from DraftKings or FanDuel (Classic, or a single game: DraftKings Showdown and FanDuel Single Game) and the builder finds the best lineups under the cap, with our projections, in a split second. Lock the players you love, cut the ones you don't, pick a style, export the file and upload it to the site.

Drop your salary file hereDraftKings or FanDuel, NBA classic. Your lineups stay in your browser; only the public salary list is shared, anonymously, to build tomorrow's perfect lineup and salary history.
  1. DraftKings: open any NBA contest for tonight (Classic or Showdown), then Export to CSV on the draft page (the file is called DKSalaries.csv).
  2. Late swap (DraftKings): after lock, go to My Contests → Upcoming → Edit Entries, download the CSV (DKEntries.csv) and drop it here: we keep the players already in play and rebuild the rest.
  3. FanDuel: open an NBA contest (full slate or Single Game), go to the lineup page and tap Download players list.
  4. Drop the file here. That's it.

The scorecard

Every projection is frozen at tip-off and graded the next morning against the real box score. We compare it with the simplest possible guess, each player's season average: if we don't beat it, you'll see it here first.

First scorecard tomorrow morningTonight's projections are being recorded now and freeze at tip-off. After the final buzzer every number gets graded here, the misses included.

How the projection works

1A normal night

Fantasy points per minute this season times his usual minutes. That is the starting line, the "usual" you see in the table.

2🔥 Form

Points per minute over the last five games, weighted 35%. Hot hands get credit, without overreacting to one big game.

3⏱ Minutes

His recent role, plus the minutes he actually gained in past games without tonight's absent teammates (The Shift), minus 3% on a back-to-back. Minutes are the biggest driver in NBA DFS.

4⚡ Pace

Possessions expected in this game, from both teams' pace, against the league average. More possessions, more stats.

5🎯 Matchup

What tonight's defense allows to his position (guards, forwards, centers), counted at half strength because early-season samples are noisy.

7🔧 Self-calibration

Every morning the scorecard feeds back in: if the last 14 nights ran high or low, every projection is nudged (at most 8%), and the range widens or narrows so that about 3 nights in 4 land inside it. It only kicks in after 300 graded players.

6↔ Floor and ceiling

How much his points per minute and his minutes swing from game to game. 15% of nights land under the floor, 10% over the ceiling: fantasy has a longer upside tail.

Injury report read every 15 minutes, page refreshed every 5. Scoring: DraftKings classic (FanDuel converted player by player from his own season numbers). No betting lines, no paid data. Projections are estimates, not promises: play what you can afford to lose.

The DFS dictionary

Eight words you will meet on this page, with what they mean for your lineup.

42.6FP
ProjectionOur number for tonight
Our estimate of his fantasy points tonight, DraftKings scoring.
2858
Floor / ceilingHis bad night and big night
Realistic, not extreme: 15% of games go under the floor, 10% over the ceiling.
5.8x
ValuePoints per $1,000
Around 5 on DraftKings (5.5 on FanDuel) is what a winning lineup needs on average.
CashGPP
Cash vs tournamentsSafe or big
Cash games pay half the field: play safe floors. Big tournaments pay the top few: chase ceilings and different lineups.
🔒 In✕ Out
Lock / excludeYou decide who's in
Force a player into every lineup, or keep him out of all of them.
Max exposureSpread the risk
The most lineups one player can appear in. At 50% with 10 lineups, nobody is in more than 5: one bad night can't sink them all.
CPT ×1.5FLEX
Showdown / Single GameOne game, multipliers
DraftKings: a Captain at 1.5x plus five FLEX. FanDuel: MVP 2x, STAR 1.5x, PRO 1.2x, two UTIL. The builder spots the format from your file.
Chalk 34%Contrarian 3%
OwnershipHow many will play him
Our estimate from value, projection and fresh minutes. Over 30% is chalk, under 5% contrarian. Upside fades chalk on purpose.

Also for tonight