The Hawks open in Houston at 2-1 and holding the third seed, and the question is whether their offense can survive nights when the threes do not fall. It can, because the shot-making is spread across the roster, and the real exposure is on the glass.
The case for the offense
Atlanta posted a 120.6 offensive rating, a 14.8 net rating and a 103.2 pace last season. Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored 21.0 a game and hit 40.7 percent from three. Aaron Wiggins scored 17.0 at 52.6 percent, and CJ McCollum added 16.3 at 38.9. Saturday is the stress test: the Hawks started 5-27 from deep, shot 26.5 percent overall and still lost by only seven, 114-121. Brad Rowland of Locked On Hawks noted that Atlanta won the possession battle and that a luck-adjusted model from Dunc'd On had the Hawks winning by 11. He was careful to say that is not gospel.
The case against it
Johnson runs everything, averaging 21.7 points, 10.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists, yet he shot 14.3 percent from three. Dyson Daniels hit 25.0 percent, Onyeka Okongwu 15.4 and Jock Landale 11.1. That is a lot of non-shooters sharing the floor. There is also a warning from the end of 2025-26, when Atlanta's point margin swung from plus-1.1 for the season to minus-11.8 over its last ten games. Houston owns the other half of the argument: Rowland pointed out the Rockets grabbed 52 percent of rebounds Saturday, their signature strength, and Henri Veesaar and Mouhamed Gueye are both out.
Where the answer lands
Yes, the scoring holds. A 105.8 defensive rating gives Atlanta room to absorb an off shooting night, and Houston's 112.5 mark is not a wall. Johnson's passing creates looks for Wiggins, Alexander-Walker and McCollum even when his own arc is cold, so one bad shooter does not sink the offense. The pressure point is rebounding with Veesaar out for the season and Gueye's estimated return set for 2026-11-20. Monday in Houston, then the Heat, Cavaliers and Pelicans, will show whether the frontcourt can hold up while the shooting regresses upward.
Are the Hawks a good offensive team this season?
Through three games they carry a 120.6 offensive rating, and the scoring comes from several players rather than one. Even a 5-27 start from three against Houston ended in a seven-point loss, not a rout.
Who is out for the Hawks against the Rockets?
Henri Veesaar (right knee) and Mouhamed Gueye (left foot) are both out. Gueye has an estimated return of 2026-11-20, while Veesaar is not expected back until 2027-07-01.
