Haliburton is out until November 13, and Indiana has dropped two straight to sit 2-3. This season turns on whether this group can finish games without him, and the answer is in how the Pacers play their last quarters.
The case for holding on
Indiana is tenth in the East, one game behind the 3-2 Hornets for sixth. This team can build a lead without Haliburton running it. Against Philadelphia the Pacers won the third quarter 36-13. Nembhard had 14 assists and went 7-8 at the line, and Siakam put up 26 points and 11 boards on 11-17 shooting. Tony East of Forbes noted that the Pacers have held a fourth-quarter lead in four of their five games. A team that keeps getting to that point is closer than its record says.
The case against it
Getting there is not the same as finishing. Philadelphia outscored Indiana 39-21 over the last twelve minutes, and Scott Agness of Fieldhouse Files reported a 21-6 76ers run inside that stretch. The jumpers dried up: Nembhard went 1-7 from deep, Siakam 0-3, and Nesmith missed two threes with Indiana down five. The reserves scored 29 points to the starters' 80, and Nance, Walker and Toppin finished at -12, -9 and -7. McConnell is out too, with November 2 as his target date, so the second guard who could organize the half court is missing as well.
The answer: tread water
Yes, Indiana can survive this stretch, but only by playing all four quarters the way it played the third. That means moving the ball until the right shot shows up instead of settling once a lead forms. The schedule gives some room. After Miami come the Nets, whom the Pacers beat 136-109 on the road, then the Hawks and Grizzlies. Zubac is day-to-day with a sore ankle and is targeting October 30, the night of the Heat game, and his return would steady the frontcourt. The current pace points to 33-49, and a $203.7M payroll above the tax line, with the 2029 first already gone, cannot absorb that. The job until November 13 is to keep the season within reach for Haliburton.
When will Tyrese Haliburton return from his hamstring injury?
Haliburton is listed out with a hamstring problem in his left leg. His expected return date is November 13.
Will Ivica Zubac play against the Heat?
Zubac is day-to-day with an ankle issue, and his target return date is October 30, the same day Indiana plays in Miami. His status is not confirmed beyond that.
