Last season the Spurs went 62-20, ranked third in offense and third in defense, and reached the Finals before the Knicks won it. The question for 2026-27 is whether that was a new floor or a high-water mark, and the answer depends more on health and rotation than on talent.
Does the opening-night loss to Oklahoma City tell us anything?
Not much on its own. The Thunder won 116-104, Stephon Castle scored 24 and Dylan Harper added 18, and San Antonio is 0-1 with 81 games left. The Spurs played without Tobias Harris. They eliminated this same Thunder team in seven games in last season's conference finals, so losing to them in October is a result, not a verdict on the season.
What says last season was real?
The foundation. A team with an 8.4 net rating that ranks third on both ends is rarely a fluke. Victor Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds, he and De'Aaron Fox were both All-Stars, and Castle was Rookie of the Year. The Athletic named Harper to its All-Breakout Team. The Spurs also just exercised 2027-28 options on Castle, Harper and Carter Bryant, which keeps the young core together.
What argues against a repeat?
Health and stability. Harris is sidelined by a left calf injury, with a return estimated for October 24. Jayden Quaintance is out until early December with a right knee injury. Fox, with a right wrist issue, and Keldon Johnson, with a mouth injury, are both uncertain for tonight. The preseason roster churn never fully settled, and power rankings have dropped San Antonio from third to 22nd in a week.
Can the front office fix things from outside?
Not easily. Payroll is $196.1 million, over the cap and under the $200.4 million tax line, and Fox's $49.8 million is the largest deal on the books. The 2027 first-round pick belongs to Sacramento, and the 2028 and 2030 firsts are swaps. Any fix most likely comes from within: Harper's growth, Bryant's development and a rotation Mitch Johnson is still sorting out. Air Alamo argued that Johnson is becoming the odd man out.
How much does tonight against Houston matter?
As a measuring stick, quite a bit. The Rockets won 52 games last season, are 1-0, and bring Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. Reed Sheppard and Steven Adams are both uncertain. San Antonio comes in on two days of rest and plays at Dallas tomorrow. One win settles nothing, but a sharp defensive night would show that last season's structure is still there.
Are the Spurs still contenders in 2026-27?
Yes. They return the core of a 62-20 Finals team led by Wembanyama and Fox, and an 0-1 start does not change that.
Who owns the Spurs' 2027 first-round pick?
Sacramento owns it. San Antonio holds swap rights on its 2028 and 2030 firsts and keeps its own 2029 first.
