Boston is 3-1 and fourth, with an offensive rating of 117.1 against a defensive rating of 108.5. Four games show the shape of this team, not its ceiling.
The rating gap is real, but the sample is thin.
Boston's net rating stands at 8.6, built on a 117.1 offense and a 108.5 defense at a pace of 100.0. That is the profile of a good team. It also rests on four games. One of them was a 134-99 win over the Bulls that supplies much of the margin, and two others were decided by four points and by one. The 62-20 pace projection is arithmetic, not a forecast.
Tatum is carrying the scoring without his three-point shot.
Tatum is averaging 28.0 points and 8.0 assists while shooting 24.1 percent from three. Against Brooklyn he scored 40 on 2-of-7 from deep by getting to the line 22 times and making 18, and he hit the overtime winner at the buzzer. The percentage says the shot has been cold. It does not say the shot is gone, and it does not say the free throws will keep coming at that rate.
The center minutes were the soft spot against Brooklyn.
Mitchell Robinson finished minus-17 in 25 minutes, while Luka Garza was plus-18 in 13. Robinson was still part of the group that closed the last five minutes of regulation. Plus-minus from one game mostly measures who shared the floor, so it settles nothing about the rotation. It does give Mazzulla an alternative to test when the Bulls visit on October 30.
The payroll leaves almost no room to fix anything from outside.
Boston's payroll is $198.7M against a $200.4M luxury tax line, which puts the club over the cap and under the tax. Tatum at $58.5M and George at $54.1M account for more than half of it. Any addition carrying real salary would push Boston past the line. That is why the bench, which scored 27 points to the starters' 98 against Brooklyn, has to be fixed from within.
Are the Celtics good again after trading Jaylen Brown?
Boston is 3-1 with an 8.6 net rating through four games, which is a strong start. Two of those wins came by four points or fewer, so the sample is too small to settle the question.
Are the Celtics over the luxury tax?
No. Their payroll is listed at $198.7M, just under the $200.4M luxury tax line.
