Dallas opens in Indiana carrying a -5.2 net from last season, a 19-year-old star doing the heavy lifting and a payroll pressed against the tax. The numbers show where this team stands, and they also show how much is still unproven.
Where The Hole Starts
Dallas scored 110.3 per 100 possessions last season and allowed 115.5. That gap produced 26-56, with the offense 27th and the defense 19th. The 110-128 loss in Houston fits the pattern, but one night proves nothing about the other 81. Indiana is a fair test. The Pacers posted a -7.8 last season and went 19-63, yet they come in 1-0, and Ben Sheppard and Aaron Nesmith are questionable while T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy are out. Last season's numbers say Dallas should win this game. Indiana's start says not to count on it.
Flagg Carries The Usage
Cooper Flagg put up 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 33.5 minutes as a rookie. That is a franchise workload. His 29.5 percent from three is the weak spot, and it is the same problem the whole roster has: Naji Marshall shot 29.1 and P.J. Washington 32.5. Flagg's line shows the offense runs through him. It does not show he can win games by himself, and Kyrie Irving, 34 and making $39.5M, is still the second engine. In the paint, Moussa Cisse is getting 26.0 minutes a night over his last five games while Lively and Santi Aldama sit. That is a starter's load on a short track record.
Small Sample, Thin Margin
The best five-man group so far is Washington, Daniel Gafford, B. Williams, Max Christie and Flagg, at +2.2. They have scored 116.8 per 100 and allowed 114.6, but in just 73 minutes. That is a lineup worth more minutes, not a finished rotation. The cap sheet is the harder limit. Dallas sits at $197.9M against a $200.4M threshold, and most of its picks through 2030 are swapped or owed, including a 2027 first protected to Charlotte. Dusty May has room to shuffle the rotation. The front office has little room to add anyone.
Is Lively playing for the Mavericks against the Pacers?
No. Lively is listed out with a foot injury, and his estimated return is October 26 against Miami.
How close are the Mavericks to the luxury tax in 2026-27?
Dallas carries a $197.9M payroll, which puts it over the cap but under the $200.4M tax threshold. Irving's $39.5M is the biggest contract on the books.
