Oklahoma City's Pressure Was Real. Denver's Guard Problem Is Still a Report
The outlets that cover Denver blame the opening loss on a physical mismatch and a gap at guard. The box score supports the first, but the guard gap rests only on a report of interest.
Three storylines are running after the 96-84 loss in Oklahoma City: the Thunder's pressure on the stars, Cameron Johnson's ankle, and depth at point guard. Denver's own numbers confirm the pressure and make the Johnson argument stronger. They do not settle the guard question.
Was it physicality?
Nugg Love's David Decker wrote that the Thunder got physical with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Mile High Sports' Ryan Blackburn called the offense shut down. The box score agrees with both. Jokic shot 5 of 19, Murray shot 2 of 11 with six turnovers, and DeMar DeRozan gave the ball away five more times. Ajay Mitchell had five steals and Cason Wallace had four. Denver scored 36 points after halftime. Blackburn also wrote that the opener looked like last season's closer. Given who ended the last two seasons, that comparison is fair.
What did losing Johnson cost?
Jack Simone of Nugg Love argued that Cameron Johnson's injury exposed a problem DeRozan can't solve. Johnson played 11 minutes and was listed afterward with a right ankle injury and an estimated return of October 24. Last season the starting five that included him was +13.5. In the opener, DeRozan closed with Gordon, Braun, Murray and Jokic. He scored 13 but went 0 of 1 from three, and he made 32.0 percent of his threes last season to Johnson's 43.0. Simone's argument is about spacing, and the numbers back it. Spencer Jones, upgraded from out today with a hamstring injury, has the same October 24 estimate.
Does Denver need another guard?
Decker also wrote that Denver's interest in Kevin Porter Jr. hints at lingering point guard concerns. Denver has made no move. The guards are Murray, Tyus Jones, Braun, Alpha Diallo and Ryan Nembhard, who is on a two-way deal. Murray's six turnovers give the concern some basis. But the payroll is $217.8 million, above the first apron, which limits how Denver could add anyone. Before the opener, Decker suggested Aaron Gordon could play point forward. Gordon scored 20 on 6 of 9 shooting but had one assist. The scoring showed up and the playmaking did not.
How far should one night move the forecast?
Blackburn predicted 50 wins two days before tipoff. In the week of the opener, one set of power rankings dropped Denver from 7th to 23rd. One road loss to the team that ended two of Denver's seasons does not justify either number. The Pelicans come to Denver next after going 26-56 last season. With Johnson back, the next four games are a fairer test of whether the starting five still works together.
Will Cameron Johnson play against the Pelicans?
Johnson is listed with a right ankle injury and an estimated return of October 24, the day of the Pelicans game. Nothing beyond that estimate has been announced.
Are the Nuggets trading for Kevin Porter Jr.?
Nugg Love reported that Denver is interested in Porter, but no move has been made. Denver's payroll is above the first apron, which limits how it could add a player.
