Four games in, the Heat are 0-4 with a -13.5 net rating, and the defense is the bigger hole. The stars are producing, and the payroll is paying for a team that is not winning.
The Defense Leaks
Miami scores 105.3 points per 100 possessions and allows 118.8. That is a -13.5 net rating over four games. The offense is mediocre. The defense is unacceptable for a program that sells conditioning and toughness. Four games is a small sample, so this does not decide the season. It does describe the effort so far, and Dallas scoring 30 in each of the last three quarters on Monday fits that picture.
Giannis Holds Up
Antetokounmpo is putting up 28.5 points a night, with 9.5 boards and 5.0 assists. His 29-point triple-double against Dallas also came with 5 turnovers and 3-of-7 free throws. The star is not the problem. His numbers also show that one player's production does not win games for this roster.
Shooters Worth Trusting
Davion Mitchell is making 45.0% of his threes and handing out 7.0 assists in 34.1 minutes. Among the regulars, only Bobby Portis Jr. shoots it better from deep, at 47.4%. That does not make Mitchell a closer: his driving layup was blocked in the final seconds Monday. Simone Fontecchio has a 70.8% true shooting mark over his last 10 games. That is efficient, but the sample is too thin to build a rotation around.
Paying For 0-4
Payroll is $206.9M, above the $200.4M luxury tax threshold. Antetokounmpo at $58.5M and Adebayo at $49.8M are the two biggest checks. Adebayo is returning 11.8 points a game and is shooting 16.7% from deep. Spending over the tax buys expectations, not wins, and right now Miami is not meeting them.
The Bottom Line
Miami is 15th, 1.5 games out of 10th and 2.5 out of sixth, with 78 games left. Nothing is lost yet, but the room for error is shrinking. Atlanta is 2-2 and has lost two straight, and the Hawks host Miami on Wednesday without Henri Veesaar and Mouhamed Gueye. The number that has to move first is 118.8.
Why are the Heat 0-4?
Mostly defense: Miami allows 118.8 points per 100 possessions and scores 105.3, a -13.5 net rating. They have also lost close games, including Monday's 113-109 loss to Dallas.
How far are the Heat from a play-in spot?
Miami is 1.5 games behind 10th place with 78 games remaining.
