Houston's ceiling depends on whether a core built on Amen Thompson's drives and Alperen Sengun's passing can space the floor well enough to win a playoff series. The case against it is the three-point column, and the case for it is a 1-0 start in which Jabari Smith Jr. scored 30.
July 6, 2025
Houston bet on shotmaking when it brought Kevin Durant over from Phoenix in a seven-team deal and sent Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks the other way. The idea was to put an elite shooter next to a homegrown core of Sengun, Thompson, Smith, Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard, with Ime Udoka running the offense through Sengun. Durant alone now costs $43.9 million of a $205.5 million payroll.
Last season
The bet mostly paid off. Houston went 52-30, its offense rated 117.5 for eighth in the league, and its defense ranked fifth. Durant scored 26.0 a night and shot 41.3 percent from three. The weak spots were in the starting group: Thompson shot 21.6 percent from deep in 37.4 minutes a game, Sengun 30.5 and Marcus Smart 33.1. Sheppard at 39.4 and Smith at 36.3 did most of the spacing around Durant.
Last spring
The playoffs tested the theory and gave a split verdict. The Lakers went up 3-0 and ended Houston's season in the first round. The Rockets won twice to stretch the series to six games, and both of those wins came without Durant on the floor. That cuts both ways. The young core competed without its best shooter, and it still could not close the gap.
October 21
The 128-110 win over Dallas made the hopeful case. Durant and Smith each scored 30, and ESPN's Tim MacMahon reported that Houston hounded Kyrie Irving all night. Smith is the swing factor. If a 23-year-old forward can score at Durant's level, Thompson and Sengun don't have to be shooters to make the offense work. The one blemish was Eason's ejection, which ESPN reported came after he shoved P.J. Washington.
Tonight
San Antonio is the right test. The Spurs went 62-20 last season with a 110.4 defensive rating, and Victor Wembanyama's 25.0 points and 11.5 rebounds make any non-shooter easy to sag off. Sheppard (left knee) and Steven Adams (right calf) are day-to-day and projected back tonight. Our answer: the spacing is good enough for the regular season but not yet for a playoff series, and Smith's jumper is what could change that.
Who are the Rockets' best three-point shooters?
Among last season's regulars, Kevin Durant led at 41.3 percent. Reed Sheppard was next at 39.4 and Jabari Smith Jr. was at 36.3.
Will Reed Sheppard play against the Spurs?
Sheppard is day-to-day because of his left knee and is projected to return for tonight's game in San Antonio.
