The question that defines 2026-27 is whether a roster built around Kevin Durant at 38 and Alperen Sengun at 24 can win a playoff series before the bill and the birthdays force a choice. The answer leans yes, and the evidence is the group that nearly stole a series without Durant on the floor.
Last season
Houston went 52-30 with a net rating of 5.4, sixth in the league, an offense ranked eighth and a defense ranked fifth. Durant carried the scoring at 26.0 points on 41.3 percent shooting from deep across 78 games. Sengun averaged 20.4 points, 8.9 boards and 6.2 assists. Amen Thompson put up 18.3 points and 5.3 assists while hitting 21.6 percent of his threes, the one number in the core that has to move.
Last spring
The Lakers took the first three games of the first round. Houston won the next two without Durant on the floor and forced a game 6 before going out. That is the case for both sides at once: the team was not good enough with Durant to avoid the 3-0 hole, and good enough without him to climb most of the way back. The homegrown group showed it could carry playoff minutes.
Entering camp
The payroll stands at $205.5 million across 16 contracts, above the $200.4 million tax threshold. Durant costs $43.9 million, Sengun $35.6 million, Fred VanVleet $25.0 million on a player option, Jabari Smith Jr. $23.6 million and Tari Eason $14.1 million. Houston owns its 2028 and 2030 first-round picks and little else that is unencumbered. Space City Scoop wrote that Durant needs to re-enter the league's top echelon, which is the bet in one sentence.
This preseason
Three games, two blowout wins and one blowout loss. Houston beat Dallas 135-117 on October 9, lost 115-132 at home on October 11, then beat the Thunder 116-89 on October 15. Last season's most-used Durant lineup, with Okogie, Sengun, Smith and Thompson, posted a 121.8 offensive rating and a plus-10.3 net over 377 minutes. The Durant, Capela, Smith, Eason and Sheppard group was plus-21.7 in 66 minutes with a defensive rating of 87.6.
Wednesday, October 21
Dallas arrives with Cooper Flagg, who averaged 21.0 points for a 26-56 team that posted a minus-5.2 net last season. Houston has five days of rest, and according to Hoops Rumors the roster is set: Oscar Tshiebwe and Julian Phillips on two-way deals, Sean Pedulla waived. The answer is yes, this roster wins a series, because a fifth-ranked defense travels and the second unit already won playoff games. The clock is Durant's. The curve belongs to Sengun, Thompson and Sheppard.
Are the Rockets over the luxury tax this season?
Yes. The payroll is $205.5 million against a $200.4 million threshold, with Durant, Sengun, VanVleet and Smith as the largest contracts.
Who do the Rockets play in the 2026-27 season opener?
The Dallas Mavericks at Toyota Center on October 21, followed by road games at San Antonio on October 23 and Atlanta on October 24.
