October Losses Teach Little. The Roster Behind Them Teaches a Lot.
A lopsided loss on this date has not ended a Warriors season before, but those teams were whole, and this one will not be for months.
The Warriors have lost three times on October 25 by 14 or more, and one of those teams went on to win a title. This team is 0-3 and missing Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody, so the comfort of the old losses only goes so far.
What does this date say about bad Octobers?
Golden State has played six games on October 25. It lost 100-129 to San Antonio in 2016, 105-134 at Phoenix in 2022, and 105-119 to Denver in 1985. It also lost 85-103 at Syracuse in 1957. It beat Milwaukee 118-104 in 1969 and won 127-86 at Utah in 2024. A 29-point loss to the Spurs in 2016 was followed by Kevin Durant's arrival story and a title in 2017. Early margins like that are weather, not climate.
Why is 2016 not a clean comparison?
That Warriors team had Curry, Thompson and Green as a settled core and was about to add Durant. Its losses came with the roster intact. This group has Butler out until January 2, Porzingis and Moody out until December 1, and an age curve that makes every missed week count. The old date tells us a loss can be survived. It does not tell us who will be around to survive it.
What does Denver actually test?
Monday brings the first real answer on health. Curry, Green, Horford and Podziemski were all cleared on Sunday, while Santos, Williams and Bassey carry estimated returns of October 26. Lendeborg has been the one constant, with 26 points on 6-of-11 from three in Phoenix. The Nuggets are 1-1, and ESPN's preview led with Jamal Murray's 42-point showing. A full rotation against that offense is a fairer test than a rotation of fill-ins.
What would count as progress?
A win would be nice, but the better sign is a rotation that looks like a plan. The Warriors gave up 131 to Phoenix with a closing five of Williams, Melton, Ike, Richard and Lendeborg, a group built by absence. If Kerr gets Curry and Green back next to Lendeborg and the margin holds, the 2016 comparison starts to mean something. If it does not, this date will go down as the start of a long autumn.
Have the Warriors ever lost big on October 25 and still won a title?
Yes. They lost 100-129 to San Antonio on October 25, 2016, and won the 2017 championship. That team was healthy, which this one is not.
Who is expected back for the Warriors against Denver?
Curry, Green, Horford and Podziemski were cleared on October 25. Santos, Williams and Bassey are day-to-day with estimated returns of October 26.
