Three Games In, the Numbers Say Defense Is the Hole, Not Hope
The Warriors' 0-3 start is a defensive problem with an offense that is working, and the standings are still close enough to fix it.
Golden State has scored 110.2 points per 100 possessions and allowed 122.2, a gap that explains the record better than any injury list. Three games is too few to call a season, but the shape of the gap is worth taking seriously.
What does a minus-12 net rating actually say?
The offense is at 110.2 and the defense at 122.2, a net of minus 12.0. Those are the Warriors' own numbers through three games, and the defensive side is where the damage sits. It says the team is not getting stops. It does not say the offense is fine, because it has been fine only in bursts, and it does not say the defense is broken for good. Curry has played two of the three games, and Green has played two.
Is one quarter a trend?
Phoenix scored 45 in the third quarter on Saturday while the Warriors scored 38, a good quarter on their end that still lost ground. Then the Suns opened the fourth with an 8-0 run to move ahead 118-102. That is a pattern a patient defense prevents and a short bench makes hard to prevent. The Warriors' starters scored 76 and the bench 44, so the scoring was there. The stops were not.
What does 1.5 games back buy?
Golden State is 15th at 0-3, but it sits only 1.5 games behind the Suns in tenth and 2.5 behind Minnesota in sixth. With 79 games left, the standings forgive a bad October. The pace projection of 0-82 is arithmetic, not forecast. The next five games include Denver, Minnesota, the Lakers, the Clippers and the Suns again, so the gap can close or widen quickly.
Where do the rookie and the payroll fit?
Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 18.7 points and shooting 44.4 percent from three over three games, and he scored 26 in Phoenix. That is real production, but three games cannot tell you whether it lasts once defenses adjust. The payroll sits at $219.8 million, above the first apron and well past the $200.4 million tax line. That money buys no flexibility. It means the fix has to come from lineups and minutes, which is where Kerr already works.
What is the Warriors' net rating this season?
Through three games, Golden State has a net rating of minus 12.0, with an offensive rating of 110.2 and a defensive rating of 122.2. The defense accounts for most of the gap.
How far back are the Warriors from a play-in spot?
At 0-3 and 15th in the West, they are 1.5 games behind tenth-place Phoenix and 2.5 games behind sixth-place Minnesota, with 79 games left.
