Cleveland is 3-2 and sixth in the East, heading to Milwaukee on the second night of a back-to-back after blowing a 15-point lead in Atlanta. Five numbers explain what this team is right now, and what they cannot tell you yet.
Is a plus-0.3 net rating good enough for this roster?
No, but it is not a panic number either. Cleveland's offensive rating sits at 113.0 and its defensive rating at 112.7, which describes a team that has basically played opponents even. The wins say the same thing: 127-125 over Minnesota and 125-121 over Brooklyn. What it does not prove is that the defense is broken. Five games is a small sample, and one of those was a 15-point lead given away.
Is Evan Mobley's 57.1 percent from three real?
It is the most encouraging number on the sheet, and it comes with an asterisk. Mobley is putting up 18.2 points with 8.8 boards, and the outside shot is giving Atkinson a different kind of big. But he went 0-3 beyond the arc in Atlanta, and five games of attempts cannot settle whether this is a new skill or a hot week. Watch the volume before you buy the percentage.
Are the starters carrying too much of the scoring?
In Atlanta, yes: starters scored 75 of the 111. Donovan Mitchell leads at 24.2 a night and hits 36.4 percent from three, but he was 1-9 from distance against the Hawks and missed two pullups in the final eight seconds. James Harden runs the offense at 6.2 assists, yet his 30.8 percent from three is a real drag. Neither number says the backcourt is failing. Both say it is streaky.
Does the bench swing games, and in which direction?
Both directions. Sam Merrill was plus-8 in Atlanta with 16 points and four threes. Tyrese Proctor was plus-5 in 20 minutes. Mario Hezonja scored 10 and was still minus-13 in 17 minutes, and Peyton Watson, shooting 14.3 percent from three on the season, finished minus-10. One night of plus-minus proves little on its own, but the Hawks' 13-0 run came when Cleveland's rotation thinned out.
What does a $209.0M payroll leave room for?
Not much. Cleveland is over the $200.4M luxury tax line, with Mitchell and Mobley at $50.1M each, Harden at $30.6M and Allen at $28.0M. The 2027, 2028 and 2029 firsts are all swaps, and the seconds in those years are owed to Chicago, Utah and Atlanta. Only the 2030 first is fully Cleveland's. That does not rule out a move, but it means the fix has to come from inside.
When do the Cavaliers play next?
Cleveland plays at Milwaukee on October 31, and both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Thunder visit on November 2.
Will Meleek Thomas play against the Bucks?
Thomas was upgraded from out on October 30 and has an estimated return of October 31 for a foot and leg issue. He scored 13.0 a game in his two appearances this season.
