Denver's Numbers Say the Fix Is a Returning Five, Not a New Wing
Five numbers from a 1-2 start say Denver's problem is its defense and its missing fifth starter, and none of them proves the season has turned.
Three games in, the Nuggets are allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions, and their bench scored about half as many points as the starters on Monday. Cameron Johnson is projected to return Wednesday in New Orleans, which makes him the quickest fix for both.
119.3: the number that matters most
Denver's offensive rating is 109.7 and its defensive rating is 119.3, a net of -9.6 at a pace of 99.1. A team that ran the league's best offense a year ago should find its shooting again. The defense is the real worry, and Golden State's 40-point third quarter on Monday is the loudest evidence for it. Three games are too few to call this an identity. They are enough to make it the first thing to fix.
+13.5: what continuity was worth
Last season, Jokic, Murray, Braun, Gordon and Johnson posted a +13.5 net rating as a five, though in a small sample. Johnson is day-to-day with a right ankle injury and is projected back Wednesday. That group is the nearest thing Denver has to a known answer: five players who already know where the next pass is going. The number does not prove the group will be sharp in Johnson's first game back. It also does not prove the group can cover for a defense this loose.
47.8 and 21.7: the spacing split
Murray is shooting 47.8 percent from three and averaging 22.3 points. Jokic is at 21.7 percent from deep but still averages 8.7 assists and 9.7 rebounds, so the passing is intact. Braun's 15.4 percent is the hole: Jokic's kick-outs are landing with shooters who are not making them. Nugg Love's David Decker tied Denver's three-point slump to Johnson's absence. The numbers are consistent with that view, but three games cannot confirm it.
67 to 34, and 1.5 games
Against the Warriors, Denver's starters scored 67 points and the bench scored 34. Bryce Hopkins started and finished -21 in 31 minutes, and Tyus Jones was -16 in nine. Alpha Diallo is out for a personal matter, Spencer Jones is out with a hamstring injury until November 2, and Julian Strawther is out until November 29. The Nuggets are tenth in the conference, 1.5 games behind sixth-place Minnesota, with 79 games left. Their current pace projects to 27-55, which means nothing in October. A winless Pelicans team, which Denver beat 141-135 on Saturday, is a fair first test of whether the defense can tighten.
When is Cameron Johnson expected back for the Nuggets?
He is day-to-day with a right ankle injury and is projected to return October 28 at New Orleans.
Why are the Nuggets 1-2 to start the season?
Mostly the defense: Denver is allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions, and Golden State scored 134 on Monday. Injuries to Johnson, Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther have also thinned the wings.
