Denver's Best Numbers Belong to Groups, Not Stars. That Is the Point
The figures that define this roster on the eve of Oklahoma City are lineup figures, and every one of them comes with a small sample attached.
Last season's ledger reads as a top offense, a middling defense and a handful of five-man groups that outscored everyone. The question for Wednesday is which of those groups Denver can actually put on the floor.
121.2 and 116.0
Those were Denver's offensive and defensive ratings last season, the best offense in the league and a defense ranked 21st, for a plus-5.2 margin that placed seventh. The offense number explains why the roster barely moved. The defense number explains why Oklahoma City, which ended the last two Denver seasons in the second round, is the first test rather than a later one. What the pair does not settle is whether an offense this efficient can carry a defense this ordinary through a second-round opponent built to slow it. Last spring said no.
Plus-20.1 in 171 minutes
The five of Jokic, Murray, Johnson, Spencer Jones and one more wing scored 136.7 per 100 possessions and allowed 116.6 across 13 games last season. That is the strongest group on the sheet, and it rests on 171 minutes, a fraction of a season. Its cousin, Gordon with Jokic, Murray, Johnson and Braun, was plus-13.5 on an even smaller sample. Both say Jokic and Murray with two shooters and a connector works. Neither says it holds over 2,000 minutes. Jones is day-to-day with a hamstring and leg issue and listed for an October 22 return, so whether the first group even opens the season is not yet known.
43.5 and 43.0
Murray shot 43.5 percent from three last season on 25.4 points and 7.1 assists a night; Johnson shot 43.0 percent on 12.2 points. Those two percentages are what turn Jokic's 10.7 assists into points rather than kickouts that die. Braun, at 30.1 percent in 44 games, is the reason the Gordon-Braun group sits below the Jones group. Shooting from a wing is the quiet variable in every five Denver can build, and it is why Julian Strawther's absence, with a knee sprain and an estimated November 29 return, costs more than a rotation slot.
$217.8 million
Denver's payroll against a $200.4 million tax line, with Jokic at $59.0 million, Murray at $50.1 million, Gordon at $33.7 million and Johnson at $23.1 million. First-round picks in 2028, 2029 and 2030 are tied to Oklahoma City with protections. The number says ownership is paying for continuity and has nearly nothing left to trade. It does not say the continuity is wasted: the lineups above are the argument that it is not. But it means the defense gets fixed from inside this group or not at all, and the opener is where that starts being measured for real.
Will Spencer Jones play in the Nuggets' season opener against the Thunder?
Jones is listed as day-to-day with a hamstring and leg issue and an estimated return of October 22, the night of the opener. RealGM reported on October 18 that he is expected to be available, but nothing is confirmed.
What was the Nuggets' best lineup last season?
The group of Jokic, Murray, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Jones plus a wing outscored opponents by 20.1 points per 100 possessions across 171 minutes in 13 games. It was the best figure on the roster, but the sample was small.
