Denver's Opener Comes Down to One Hamstring and One Five-Man Group
With Strawther out until late November, Spencer Jones' hamstring decides how much of last year's wing rotation Denver carries into Oklahoma City on Thursday.
Nothing moved on the roster in the last day and a half, and the 17 players who finished the preseason are the ones traveling to Oklahoma City. The question is health on the wing, where Jones carries an estimated return of October 22 and Strawther is not due back until November 29.
The wing is the only open question
Jones is listed with a hamstring and leg issue, and Thursday is his estimated return. RealGM reported Sunday that he is on track to play in the opener. Strawther is out with a left knee sprain, and his estimated return is November 29. That leaves Denver thin at exactly the spot where Jones gave the second unit its defense last season, 22.1 minutes a night at 39.6 percent from three. Nugg Love suggested the absence could push Trevon Brazile into the rotation, and Brazile did score 22 at the Clippers on October 14. A rookie minute is not a Jones minute, though, and the gap shows most on the defensive end.
Why continuity matters more than depth
The number worth carrying into Thursday is plus-13.5. That is what the five of Gordon, Jokic, Murray, Johnson and Braun did per 100 possessions last season, in a sample still too small to lean on fully. It is also the group most likely to start in Oklahoma City. Johnson shot 43.0 percent from three last season, Murray 43.5, and Jokic averaged 10.7 assists. A passing offense runs on players who know where the ball arrives before it leaves the hand. Those five have the fewest new things to learn about each other, which is a real asset against a defense built to disrupt timing.
Thursday, then two home nights
Denver opens October 22 at the Thunder on ESPN, hosts the Pelicans October 24 and the Warriors October 26, then plays at New Orleans October 28. Nugg Love reported that Adelman voiced trust in his bench ahead of the opener, and the same outlet argued he still needs to stagger a starter to make that second unit work. How he splits Jokic's and Murray's minutes against Oklahoma City will say more about his plan than any preseason result did.
Is Spencer Jones playing in the Nuggets' season opener?
He is listed with a hamstring issue and an estimated return of October 22, and RealGM reported he is on track to play. Nothing has been confirmed by the team.
When does Julian Strawther return for the Nuggets?
He is out with a left knee sprain, and his estimated return is November 29. Reports put the absence at six weeks or more.
