Bagley Has to Be the Backup Center Who Doesn't Need the Ball
Marvin Bagley III scored efficiently on little usage last season, but Denver's lineups with him did not, so this year he has to be a finisher who fits the Jokic-Murray offense.
Bagley shot 61.8% from the field in 60 games last season on a $2.4M deal, yet his on-court numbers were the weakest among the Nuggets' regulars. His job this season is narrow and clear: finish what Denver's passers create and hold up on the other end.
What the shooting line says
Bagley played 20.0 minutes a game last season and gave Denver 10.5 points and 6.1 rebounds. He made 61.8% of his shots and 46.2% of his threes, though he took only 0.9 of those a game. His true shooting was 66.1% on 18.0% usage. That is a player who takes what the offense gives him and rarely forces anything. His 1.4 assists and 10.7% assist rate say the same thing. He is not a connector, and he doesn't need to be.
Why the on-court numbers disagree
The advanced numbers pull the other way. With Bagley on the floor, Denver scored 109.9 points per 100 possessions, well under the 121.2 the team managed over the full season. It allowed 119.0, against a team mark of 116.0. His net figure was minus-9.1. Efficient scoring did not become efficient possessions for the group, and the defensive side was the larger part of the gap. In an offense built on five players moving in sync, a finisher's value shows up in the lineup, not in his own shooting percentage.
Where he fits now
Nugg Love's David Decker wrote this weekend that Bagley's two-way play gives the Nuggets a solid backup center. Denver needs that to be true. Jokic's minutes need a real replacement, and Bagley's 14.3% rebound rate is the kind of cover a second unit requires. His $2.4M salary matters too. Denver is above the first apron, and a minimum-level big who plays 20 minutes is the kind of contract the payroll can absorb. With Julian Strawther out until at least late November and Spencer Jones day-to-day with a hamstring issue, the frontcourt rotation will not stay settled for long.
The verdict
Bagley does not need more touches. He needs to cut his defensive rating toward the team's 116.0 and keep finishing the way he did last season. If he does both, the minus-9.1 stops being the headline. The bench lineups that carry him will show it first, because those groups will rarely have Murray or Jokic setting the table. The 0.9 threes a game could grow if defenses stay home on him, but that is an extra. The job this season is to be the big the offense never has to think about.
What is Marvin Bagley III's role with the Nuggets?
He is a frontcourt reserve who played 20.0 minutes a game last season. Nugg Love described him as a solid backup center.
How did Bagley play for Denver last season?
He averaged 10.5 points and 6.1 rebounds in 60 games and shot 61.8% from the field. Denver was outscored with him on the floor, with a net figure of minus-9.1.
