Denver's Early Numbers Say the Stars Are Fine and the Connections Are Not
Four games in, Jokic and Murray are producing, and the numbers that worry Denver are about the players around them.
The Nuggets are 2-2 and the ninth seed, half a game behind San Antonio for sixth, and they play at Phoenix tonight in the Emirates NBA Cup. These numbers explain why the rotation, more than the two stars, decides what comes next.
108.3 and 112.0
Denver is scoring 108.3 per 100 possessions and allowing 112.0, a -3.7 margin at a 99.4 pace. For a team that led the league in offense a year ago, the surprise is on the scoring end. The defense ranked 21st last season and is still giving up points. What the numbers do not prove: those four games include a 134-114 home loss to Golden State, and this early one lopsided night skews every rate.
Who is finishing the passes?
Jokic is averaging 22.0 points, 10.5 boards and 9.0 assists, and Murray is scoring 22.5 a night while hitting 47.1 percent from three. The two stars are holding up their end. The passes need someone to finish them. Braun is shooting 23.8 percent from deep, DeRozan 25.0 and Jokic 21.7. Murray scored 42 against New Orleans on October 24 and 6 in the rematch, and Denver won both, which shows how much the offense still depends on whoever is hot that night. ESPN reported that Jokic's triple-double on October 28 was the 200th of his career. What the numbers do not prove: that the shooting is broken. Four games of percentages can swing on one good night.
+13.5 and +20.1
Last season Gordon, Jokic, Murray, Johnson and Braun were +13.5 together, and Jokic, Murray, Johnson, Watson and Jones were +20.1 over 171 minutes. Johnson is in both groups. He is the forward whose spacing gives Jokic's passes somewhere to go. His right ankle has him listed out, with October 30 as the estimated return. Spencer Jones' hamstring carries a November 2 estimate. What the numbers do not prove: that last season's chemistry comes back on schedule. Lineups that worked together have to rebuild it in shared minutes.
Half a game
Denver is the ninth seed, half a game behind the 3-2 Spurs for sixth and half a game clear of 11th, with 78 games left. At this pace the Nuggets finish 41-41. Tonight's game ends a two-game road trip on one day of rest, against a Suns team that has had three. What the numbers do not prove: anything about April. What they do show is how thin the line is right now between a guaranteed playoff spot and the play-in, and a healthy rotation decides which side Denver lands on.
Is Cameron Johnson playing for the Nuggets against the Suns?
Johnson is listed out because of his right ankle. His estimated return date is October 30, the day of the Phoenix game.
Why is the Nuggets' offense worse than last season?
Denver is scoring 108.3 per 100 possessions because the players around its stars are missing from three, with Braun at 23.8 percent and DeRozan at 25.0. Jokic and Murray are each averaging more than 22 points.
