Toronto lost 117-94 at Minnesota on Sunday, trailing by as many as 32 without Kawhi Leonard. The loss was lopsided, but the three-game sample behind it is small, and these six numbers show what it does and doesn't prove.
The Margin and the Rating
First, 10.5: Toronto's net rating through three games, built on a 108.3 offense and a 97.8 defense. Minnesota's is 23.0. Second, 32: the Timberwolves' biggest lead, against a Toronto high of one. The first number says the defense is holding up. The second says what happens when the starters stumble. Neither proves much yet. Two of the three games were against the Bulls and the Wizards, and the one real test arrived on a night Leonard sat out. ESPN reported that he was out with knee swelling. He is now day-to-day, with October 28 as the target date.
Barnes and the Backcourt
Third, minus-27: Scottie Barnes's plus-minus in 28 minutes, the worst on the roster. TSN's live updates charted him at 0-for-12 from the floor. Fourth, 5-of-8: Walter's three-point shooting on a night when RJ Barrett went 9-for-21 and Jamal Shead went 2-for-8 in 21 minutes. Walter's 22 points led Toronto, and the rookie Allen Graves added 11 in 20 minutes. Starters scored 61 and the bench 22. That split points to a thin rotation when one star is missing. It does not show Barnes is broken. A scoreless night in a 23-point game is one game.
The Tax Line and the Calendar
Fifth, $201.2M: Toronto's payroll against a tax line of $200.4M. Leonard at $50.3M and Barnes at $41.8M lead a payroll that leaves almost no room for error. That figure says the front office has little flexibility, not that a move is coming. Sixth, 55-27: where the current pace projects the season, with 79 games left. Three games can't carry that projection. The next two are against Orlando, on October 28 and October 30, and the first will show how much of Sunday's result was the absence and how much was the roster.
How good are the Raptors after their first loss?
Toronto is 2-1 and fourth in the standings, with a net rating of 10.5 over three games. The Minnesota loss was by 23 points, but it came with Leonard out and in a small sample.
When is Kawhi Leonard expected back for the Raptors?
Leonard is day-to-day with a left knee problem, and October 28 is the target return date. That is the home game against the Magic.
