Toronto is 2-1 and fourth in the East, with a $201.2M payroll that sits above the $200.4M luxury tax line. With Orlando visiting twice this week, the question is whether this roster justifies that bill, or whether it is, as Dave Feschuk wrote in the Toronto Star, "the same flawed team as last year."
The Case for Paying
The defense is real. Over three games Toronto has a 97.8 defensive rating and a plus-10.5 net rating, and its pace projects to 55-27. The Raptors beat Chicago 135-92 and won 112-102 in Washington, where Scottie Barnes had 28 points and 14 rebounds. That fits last season's identity: 46-36 with the league's fifth-ranked defense. In a week the club climbed from 11th to 1st in the power rankings. A team that defends like this from the opening week has a floor, and a floor is what a tax payroll is supposed to buy.
The Case Against
The ceiling still runs through a 35-year-old earning $50.3M. Leonard sat out in Minnesota with knee swelling, as ESPN reported, and Toronto lost 117-94. TSN's Josh Lewenberg wrote afterward that Kawhi "is going to miss games this season." The offense ranked 14th a year ago and sits at a 108.3 rating now. RJ Barrett is scoring 21.0 a game but hitting 9.1 percent from three, and Barnes is at 14.3 percent. Jakob Poeltl, holding a $19.5M player option, is averaging 3.0 points. The rotation is already stretched thin: Ja'Kobe Walter has gone from 21.5 to 33.7 minutes a night over his last five games, and Jamal Shead is playing 11 more minutes with a teammate out.
Where It Lands
The bill is defensible this season, because the defense and Barnes give Toronto a playoff-caliber base even before Leonard is fully available. The next dollar is the real question. Barrett, at $29.6M, has no reported extension progress since Hoopsrumors reported on September 29 that talks weren't serious, and his shooting argues for patience rather than a new commitment. Walter's 40.0 percent from three, on an option the club picked up for 2027-28, is the cheaper answer to the spacing problem. Orlando comes in without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs or Jonathan Isaac. If Leonard plays, two home games against a shorthanded opponent will show which version of this team the payroll is buying.
Will Kawhi Leonard play against the Magic on October 28?
He was upgraded from out on October 26 with a left knee issue, and October 28 is listed as his expected return date. His status for the game has not been confirmed.
Are the Raptors over the luxury tax in 2026-27?
Yes. Toronto's payroll is $201.2M, above the $200.4M tax line, led by Leonard at $50.3M and Barnes at $41.8M.
