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The Launch Pad · The big question

The Big Question: Does Houston's Ceiling Belong to Durant or Sengun?

A 4-0 start reopens the argument over which star sets the limit for a roster paying the tax.

By the Rockets Nightly Desk · Tuesday, October 27

Houston is 4-0 and atop the Western Conference with a $205.5 million payroll built around a 38-year-old scorer and a 24-year-old center. Whether this group finally wins a playoff series depends more on Sengun's growth curve than on Durant's legs.

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Illustration by Hoops Nightly.

July 2025

Houston sent Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks out in a seven-team deal to land Kevin Durant from Phoenix on July 6, 2025. The bet was to put a closer next to a homegrown core of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard. The bill came with it: the payroll entered this season at $205.5 million, above the $200.4 million tax line, and Durant's $43.9 million is the biggest number on it.

Last season

The group went 52-30. Its net rating of 5.4 ranked sixth in the league, built on the eighth-ranked offense and fifth-ranked defense. Durant passed into fifth on the all-time scoring list on March 21, 2026. The Lakers still ended the season in the opening round. Houston dug out of a 3-0 hole to reach Game 6, and both comeback wins came without Durant on the floor. That detail is the skeptics' best argument.

Oct. 21-24

The season opened with three straight wins. Houston beat Dallas 128-110 at home, then won 114-110 at San Antonio and 121-114 at Atlanta. The production was split. Sengun scored 29 against the Spurs, Thompson added 20 points and 10 rebounds in that game, and Durant led the win in Atlanta with 22 while Eason scored 19. No single star carried the streak, and that is the point.

Oct. 26

The rematch with Atlanta was the clearest case for Sengun. He scored 29, shooting 11 of 15, with nine rebounds, nine assists, six steals and a +29 in 37 minutes, along with six turnovers. Durant gave 22 in 30 minutes, made nine of 10 free throws and blocked four shots. Smith logged 39 minutes with 16 points and 12 rebounds. The starters scored 87 of the 120 points, and Houston led by as many as 22.

Oct. 28

The answer is Sengun. Durant at 38 is the accelerant, worth his money in 30-minute nights and in late possessions. But the playoff wins Houston did get came without him, and the center is the one whose numbers keep rising. The roster is also thin: Steven Adams stays sidelined by his right calf until an estimated Nov. 2. Smart was upgraded from out on Oct. 27 and is projected back Oct. 28.

Next Houston plays at Milwaukee, 1-3, on Oct. 28, then visits Dallas for an Emirates NBA Cup game on Oct. 30.
Will Marcus Smart play for the Rockets against the Bucks?

Smart was upgraded from out on Oct. 27 with a left forearm injury, and his estimated return is Oct. 28, the day of the Milwaukee game. Steven Adams remains sidelined by his right calf, with an estimated return of Nov. 2.

Are the Houston Rockets over the luxury tax in 2026-27?

Yes. The payroll is $205.5 million against a $200.4 million tax line, led by Kevin Durant at $43.9 million and Alperen Sengun at $35.6 million.

By the Rockets Nightly Desk, written from the club's data and the reports on file, with every name and number checked against them. How the desks work.

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