The question for 2026-27 is whether this Houston core can finally win a playoff series, and five games of efficiency say yes. The case against is age, health and a payroll $5.1M over the tax line, but the answer is still yes, and Sengun's growth is the reason.
Last season
Houston went 52-30 with the league's sixth-best net mark at 5.4, an eighth-ranked offense and a fifth-ranked defense. It still lost to the Lakers in the first round, after forcing a Game 6 from down 3-0. Both comeback wins came without Durant on the floor. That series holds the whole debate: the core that won those nights was Sengun, Thompson and the homegrown wings, not the $43.9M star.
October 24-26
Two wins over Atlanta showed both sides of the roster: 121-114 on the road, then 120-110 at Toyota Center. Durant scored 22 in each. Eason added 19 in the first game and Sengun 29 in the second. The split in the scoring supports the yes case. At 38, Durant is not carrying this team alone, and his 22.4 points a night come with 50.0 percent shooting from three.
October 28
The 132-100 win in Milwaukee came with Sengun out with back trouble, and ESPN credited VanVleet and Thompson for it. Through five games Houston scores 122.5 points per 100 possessions and allows 108.4, a plus-14.1 margin at a 100.4 pace. Smith is hitting 42.9 percent from deep. Thompson is averaging 18.2 points and 8.0 rebounds. Power rankings moved Houston from sixth to second in a week.
This week
The no case rests on health and money. Sengun is day-to-day and Sheppard is out, both with back injuries, while Steven Adams is out with a right calf injury and Marcus Smart with a left forearm injury. Payroll is $205.5M against a $200.4M tax line, and VanVleet's $25.0M is a player option. Houston owns only its 2028 and 2030 first-round picks outright, so there is little to trade if a body breaks.
October 30
The answer is yes, and the reason is Sengun. At 24, he is averaging 24.5 points, 9.0 rebounds and 7.0 assists, and the Lakers series already showed this group can win without Durant. A 38-year-old's minutes need exactly that: a second engine that can carry the offense. The 5-0 start does not settle anything. Winning a series in April does.
Are the Rockets good enough to win a playoff series this season?
Through five games, yes: a plus-14.1 margin and Sengun's all-around production make this core stronger than the one that lost to the Lakers in six. Health and depth are the risks.
Are the Rockets over the luxury tax in 2026-27?
Yes. Houston's payroll is $205.5M, above the $200.4M luxury tax line.
