Can This Roster Survive to December Before It Is Whole?
Three losses are a small hole, but the Warriors need to stay within reach of the play-in until Moody, Porzingis and Butler return.
Golden State is 0-3, 14th in the West, one game behind 10th and 2.5 behind sixth. The question that decides the year is whether the team that survives November is anything like the team that will exist in January.
The case that it is only three games
The standings are forgiving. Seventy-nine games remain, and the tenth seed today is Dallas at 1-2. The losses were not all the same. The 108-111 defeat to Memphis came down to three points. In Phoenix, a depleted group scored 122 and led 25-22 after one quarter. Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in 34.2 minutes, and he made 44.4 percent of his threes. A rookie who plays like that gives a front office something to build on.
The case that the margin is thinner than it looks
Those standings flatter a roster that is not whole. Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis are listed out until December 1. Jimmy Butler is listed out until January 2. Until then Kerr is covering minutes with what is available. Gui Santos has been playing 29.6 minutes a night over his last 10 games, against 20.5 for the season. Charles Bassey and Nate Williams have taken on nine and 14 extra minutes over three games because teammates are out. Those are patches. The Warriors have also allowed 127, 111 and 131 points, and no scoring night offsets that for long.
What the next two weeks actually decide
The schedule does not give much room. After Denver tonight come Minnesota, the Lakers at Chase Center, the Clippers and the Suns again. Denver is 1-1 and Jamal Murray scored 42 in the win ESPN noted before this game. Cameron Johnson and Alpha Diallo are day-to-day for the Nuggets. Golden State has Curry, Green, Podziemski and Horford off the injury report, according to Dalton Johnson of NBC Sports Bay Area. That is the fullest lineup Kerr has had all week.
The answer
The season will not be lost in October, but it can be damaged there. A team that reaches December one game out of the play-in field can use Moody and Porzingis as additions. A team four or five games out will need them as rescuers, which is a much heavier load. Porzingis is also the subject of trade talk, which HoopsRumors reported last week, and a poor November would push that conversation toward selling. So the answer is yes: this group can survive until it is whole, but only if the defense improves in the next five games. If it does not, December arrives as a deadline.
How bad is an 0-3 start for the Warriors?
It is recoverable, because the Warriors are one game behind 10th place with 79 games left. The larger problem is that three key players are out until December or January.
When do Butler, Porzingis and Moody return?
Moody and Porzingis are listed out until December 1, and Butler until January 2. Those are estimated dates, not guarantees.
