The Warriors Don't Need to Be Good Until January. They Need to Be Close.
The season turns on how far behind Golden State falls before Jimmy Butler returns, and the evidence says the Warriors can stay close if Stephen Curry is on the floor.
Butler, Moses Moody and Porzingis all start the year sidelined, and last season's team finished 37-45. A 4-2 preseason built on Draymond Green's passing and Yaxel Lendeborg's production suggests the gap can be managed, but not much more than that.
What is actually missing?
Butler's right knee keeps him out until an estimated January 2. Moody's left knee sidelines him until an estimated December 1. Porzingis is listed Out with an undisclosed cause and an estimated return of November 9, after being out indefinitely since September 28 with no explanation. That is three of the five biggest contracts on the sideline when the opener arrives Wednesday at the Lakers. So the question for this season is not whether the Warriors are good at full strength. They may not see full strength until the new year. The question is how far behind they fall before it arrives.
The case that they hold
The Warriors went 4-2 in the preseason, and the last three wins came by five, twelve and ten points, including 101-89 at the Lakers. NBC Sports Bay Area's Dalton Johnson noted that Lendeborg led the team with 15.6 points and 7.4 rebounds in under 24 minutes a night, and that Green put up 25 assists against six turnovers in four games. That matters because Butler's absence takes away a playmaker, and Green's passing is the cheapest way to replace one. Brandin Podziemski scored 17 in both of the last two wins. A team that moves the ball can survive thin rotations for a while.
The case that they don't
Preseason is not evidence. Last season's team went 37-45, finished 19th in offense and 16th in defense, and posted a net rating of -0.5. Even that group leaned on stars who missed time: Butler played 38 games, Curry 43 and Porzingis 32. Payroll sits at $223.3 million, $1.6 million past the $221.7 million apron line, so the front office has little room to repair a bad November by trade. Good ball movement will not fix a roster that is short on size and proven shooters while its three best-paid reinforcements are out.
So which is it?
They stay in range, and Curry decides how much range. His ankle scare at practice ended with ESPN's Anthony Slater reporting that he is fine, and he is listed day-to-day with an estimated return of October 21. If he plays most of the next ten weeks, Green and the younger rotation can cover the rest. If he misses a month, a 37-45 team is a fair comparison and January arrives too late. The Warriors do not need Butler to save the season. They need Curry to keep it alive until Butler gets there.
When is Jimmy Butler expected back for the Warriors?
The estimated return is January 2, 2027, because of a right knee injury. Until then Golden State will play without one of its three highest-paid players.
Can the Warriors compete in 2026-27 without Butler, Moody and Porzingis?
They can stay in range if Curry plays most of the games before Butler returns, since the preseason showed workable ball movement and depth. Last season's 37-45 record is the warning that staying close is the goal, not winning early.
