Last season's numbers say Boston's ceiling is real: a 56-26 record, the No. 2 offense and the No. 4 defense in the league. The variable neither number settles is whether Jayson Tatum and Paul George, at 36, can stay on the floor long enough to matter.
Last season's numbers argue the ceiling is real.
Boston went 56-26 with the No. 2 offense and the No. 4 defense in the league, a net rating of 8.3 that ranked fourth overall. Paul George played 37 games and shot 39.2 percent from three on 17.3 points a night. Jayson Tatum, in just 16 games, averaged 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists on 32.9 percent from three. The talent case does not need an argument.
Health, not shooting, is the variable neither number settles.
Tatum is listed day-to-day with an estimated return of October 1, which clears him well ahead of the October 20 opener at Detroit. But 16 games last season is the more honest baseline than any per-game average, and George turns 36 this season having played 37 games himself. Both men's numbers are real. Neither sample is large.
The ledger leaves little room to add insurance.
Payroll sits at $201.4 million, above the $200.4 million luxury tax line and pressed toward the $209.0 million first apron, with Tatum's $58.5 million and George's $54.1 million as the two largest deals. That is a front office watching, not shopping. Jake Fischer's report of interest in Devin Carter is a name, not a transaction.
Philadelphia is the number that actually matters here.
Boston's last playoff game was a first-round exit to the 76ers after blowing a 3-1 series lead. Every question about health and cap room this fall points at the same opponent. The roster on paper can win that series. Whether it can stay on the floor to play it is the season's real bet.
Will Jayson Tatum be ready for the Celtics' season opener?
He is listed day-to-day with an estimated return of October 1, more than two weeks before Boston opens October 20 at Detroit.
Are the Celtics over the luxury tax this season?
Yes. Payroll sits at $201.4 million, above the $200.4 million tax line and approaching the $209.0 million first apron.
