Boston won 56-26 last season and then swapped Jaylen Brown for Paul George, a 36-year-old who played 37 games. The answer to the season's central question depends less on talent than on how many nights George and Jayson Tatum are on the floor.
The case for George is built on efficiency, not volume.
Last season Boston posted a 120.0 offensive rating and a 111.7 defensive rating, good for a net of 8.3. George averaged 17.3 points in 30.7 minutes and shot 39.2 percent from three. Pritchard shot 37.7 and Hauser 39.3. A wing who spaces the floor at that rate fits a roster whose offense already worked. It also fits Mazzulla's approach of surrounding Tatum with shooters, which is hard to argue with after a 56-26 year.
The case against begins with the lineup that no longer exists.
Boston's best five-man group last season was Brown, White, Queta, Pritchard and Hauser: +17.9 over 35 games and 200 minutes. That unit cannot be rebuilt as it was. The nearest replacement, with Gonzalez in Brown's place, produced +14.8 in 13 games and 67 minutes, a sample too small to trust. Neither number proves the new version is worse. Neither proves it is as good. Meanwhile George played only 37 games last season and Tatum 16, so the stars' availability is the unmeasured variable.
The payroll narrows the margin for repair.
Boston carries $203.9 million across 17 contracts, above the $200.4 million tax line and under the $209.0 million first apron. Tatum at $58.5 million and George at $54.1 million take the largest share, with White next at $30.3 million. If the roster needs a midseason fix, the cost of making it is already visible. Picks exist, including its own 2027 and 2030 firsts, but the second-round cupboard is mostly owed elsewhere.
The answer is yes on scoring and unknown on durability.
George can reproduce the shooting and the secondary creation. He cannot, on last season's evidence, be guaranteed for a full schedule, and that matters more than any single skill. Tuesday's opener at Detroit will not settle it. The Pistons went 60-22 last season with a net rating of 8.4, a hair above Boston's 8.3, and Cade Cunningham averaged 23.9 points. Both teams have had three days of rest. The real test is whether the five that starts together in November looks like the one that started in April.
Who replaced Jaylen Brown on the Celtics?
Boston traded Brown to the 76ers for Paul George and picks, and George is now the veteran wing beside Jayson Tatum. Hugo Gonzalez also played in a lineup with Brown's former teammates, but no single player replaces Brown.
Are the Celtics over the luxury tax in 2026-27?
Yes. Their payroll is $203.9 million against a tax line of $200.4 million. They remain under the $209.0 million first apron.
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