Bam Cleared, DiVincenzo Out: the Opener Against Minnesota Is Here

0:04The host: Last time out you said the October 10th game against Minnesota was just the look, and the 21st is the one that counts. Well, it's the 21st. Same Timberwolves, two hours from now, ESPN. First fan question: does that 124-125 preseason loss tell us anything?

0:23The analyst: Almost nothing. It was 1 point in a preseason game, with rotations nobody uses tonight. Ryan Conwell led us with 22 that night, and he's a rookie.

0:34The host: And I told people to watch Kylor Kelley's legs.

0:38The analyst: Kelley left the team October 18, the same day as Gabe Madsen, Bez Mbeng and Ezra Ausar. That storyline's closed.

0:47The host: I'll eat that one. Here's what decides tonight: Bam Adebayo cleared yesterday. The groin is off the report.

0:55The analyst: He was cleared October 20 after being listed with the right groin since the 14th. That's the whole game. Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo from the opening tip, for the first time when it counts.

1:11The host: Fan question two: how good is this Minnesota team, really?

1:16The analyst: They had a plus-3.1 net rating last season. Ours was plus-2.1. Their defensive rating was 112.5 and ours was 113.6. They were better than us, and most of the gap was on defense.

1:32The host: But they're short a body.

1:34The analyst: Donte DiVincenzo is out with a right Achilles. He played all 82 games last season at 30.4 minutes a night. They're missing their most durable piece.

1:46The host: So who eats those minutes?

1:48The analyst: LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu. Ball averaged 7.1 assists a game last season. That's the matchup that decides it: Davion Mitchell on Ball.

2:01The host: I love that for us. Mitchell had 6.5 assists a game last season and shot 39.5% from three.

2:08The analyst: Slow down. He did that in 28.6 minutes a night. Chasing Ball for longer than that is a different job, and none of those numbers tell us he can do it.

2:19The host: Is anybody tired?

2:21The analyst: No. Both teams had 4 days off. Minnesota is on its second straight road game, but this is opening night, not March.

2:30The host: Then what about tempo?

2:31The analyst: We played at a pace of 104.2 last season and they played at 101.5. A fast game tilts toward us. In the half court they have Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert.

2:44The host: Injury report. Who plays?

2:46The analyst: Pelle Larsson and Dru Smith also cleared yesterday. The only Heat name left is Vladislav Goldin, day-to-day with an ankle and an estimated return of today.

2:58The host: Goldin's the one who gave Minnesota trouble on the 10th.

3:01The analyst: He and Conwell topped that game. With Adebayo and Nick Richards ahead of him at center, Goldin sitting costs us depth, not a starter.

3:11The host: Number of the day.

3:12The analyst: 70.8%. That's Simone Fontecchio's true shooting across a 10-game window. It's the same number we've carried for three shows.

3:23The host: So why say it again?

3:25The analyst: Because tonight it resets. Ten games is a small sample. It doesn't prove he's a 70% shooter. It proves he's earned a look behind Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jović.

3:39The host: How did camp end?

3:41The analyst: Badly. We lost 115-136 at Orlando on October 16, then cut four names two days later. Two rookies made it, Conwell and Tre Donaldson.

3:53The host: And something broke this morning.

3:55The analyst: Ira Winderman reports that Nick Richards' 2026-27 salary has become guaranteed. If that holds, Richards is here for the season, not a trade chip waiting on a deadline.

4:10The host: What does it do to the tax picture?

4:13The analyst: Payroll reads $206.9M, down from $209.1M earlier this month. It's still above the $200.4M tax line. The Richards report doesn't change the headline: this team pays tax.

4:31The host: Where and when?

4:32The analyst: Kaseya Center, tonight on ESPN. After that it's Detroit at home on the 23rd and Charlotte on the road on the 24th.

4:42The host: So a back-to-back in week one, with Klay Thompson at 36.

4:47The analyst: That's why I'd expect him near the 21.7 minutes a game he played last season, not above it.

4:53The host: Question for you at home: in crunch time, do you want Antetokounmpo and Adebayo together, or one of them with Bobby Portis spacing the floor? He shot 45.6% from three last season.

5:07The analyst: Make your case. We'll read every one.

5:09The host: Watch Davion Mitchell on LaMelo Ball tonight, because that's where this one turns. Everything else, from Goldin's ankle to the Richards guarantee, is in Hoops Nightly's Heat section.