Alvarado's Return and a Reality Check on Brunson's 37.7

0:04The host: Fans woke up this morning asking the same thing: was Monday real, getting beat 97-120 by Philadelphia, or just preseason noise?

0:13The analyst: Real in the box score. Not real as a signal — half that Philadelphia roster was out there experimenting with minutes too.

0:21The host: Fair enough. Tonight against Washington we get a cleaner look — and Jose Alvarado's supposed to be back.

0:27The analyst: He's day-to-day, left knee, estimated return today. If he actually suits up, that's the one thing that decides how tonight feels.

0:36The host: Because without him, Brown's stuck starting second-unit minutes with no real ball-handler behind Brunson.

0:42The analyst: Right. Alvarado back means somebody else can guard the ball for stretches without Brunson playing every single minute.

0:49The host: Which is exactly why it stung having him out for game one.

0:53The analyst: This is Brown's second training camp with this group. By now he knows exactly who he trusts in those minutes.

0:59The host: Washington's 0-0 too, but look at where they finished last year — 17-65.

1:05The analyst: Defensive rating 121.5, net rating -11.8. Still rebuilding, clearly, even with Anthony Davis in the middle.

1:13The host: Davis averaged 20.4 points, 11.1 rebounds a game last season, when he actually played.

1:20The analyst: 20 games is the key word there. Tonight he's also without Alex Sarr, day-to-day with the foot, while Washington's missing Tristan Vukcevic, hip, and Jamir Watkins, knee — both out.

1:32The host: Brian Keefe's shorthanded up front too, then.

1:35The analyst: Which probably means more minutes at the five for Deandre Ayton, next to Davis.

1:40The host: Behind them it's Kyshawn George, Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly — a young group filling in the rest of the roster.

1:47The analyst: Towns against Davis is the matchup that decides tonight on paper. Two bigs who both step out past the arc.

1:55The host: They also played fast last year — pace 102.5. New York ran at 97.7.

2:01The analyst: So if Washington gets out in transition, that's new for us this preseason. Something to watch early.

2:08The host: Our own injury sheet is basically one name: Alvarado, day-to-day, left knee.

2:13The analyst: Everybody else is clean. In preseason, clean just means nobody's told us a problem yet.

2:19The host: Number I keep coming back to — Brunson's averaging 37.7 across his last three 30-point games.

2:25The analyst: Those three games aren't this season. Monday against Philadelphia, he had 12.

2:30The host: 12 on a rough shooting night doesn't erase 37.7.

2:35The analyst: It doesn't erase it. It means stop using it to predict tonight. One preseason box score, either way, proves nothing off a sample that small.

2:43The host: Huh. So the real number's lower than that makes it sound.

2:47The analyst: Right — his full season average last year was 26 points. 37.7 was a hot stretch, not a baseline.

2:56The host: So which number do we trust walking into tonight?

2:59The analyst: Neither one yet. Ask again after Washington.

3:02The host: Three lines from Monday: lost 97-120 at Philadelphia, Anunoby had 12, Brunson had 12.

3:11The analyst: Neither of those is a crisis number. It's why Brown wants a cleaner performance tonight, not a verdict on the whole roster.

3:19The host: They've had 2 days of rest since, no back-to-back, just one game in the last week.

3:24The analyst: Washington's mid-trip — one game, then home in 2 days. Low stakes for both sides tonight.

3:30The host: Next one after this is the 12th, against Minnesota. Plenty of time to fix whatever's broken.

3:36The analyst: If anything's actually broken. One preseason loss with half a roster experimenting — let's not overreact twice in a week.

3:44The host: Ball goes up in about 2 hours. NBA TV has it.

3:48The analyst: And there's a Hoopsrumors piece out today — Knicks notes touching Bridges, the reserves, the 14th man spot.

3:55The host: Anything on Bruce Brown's contract in there? That one's still non-guaranteed.

4:00The analyst: Not that's been reported — just listed as a topic, nothing decided.

4:04The host: Payroll's already $227.7M, above the second apron. Brown's non-guaranteed deal is the one easy lever if they ever need to trim.

4:16The analyst: Which is probably why his name's sitting in a 'reserves, 14th man' headline and not a bigger one.

4:21The host: Last time out we were still asking who wins the center minutes — Drummond, Wiseman, Bradley.

4:27The analyst: Still unsettled, nothing in today's notes closes that one. Bigger picture, the verdict's simple: Washington's record says tune-up, not measuring stick.

4:37The host: Counter: a clean performance tonight still matters more than who's across from us.

4:42The analyst: Can't argue with that.

4:44The host: Watch Alvarado's minutes tonight — if he's really back out there, that answers the one thing we care about. Catch the full breakdown on Knicks Nightly, on Hoops Nightly.

4:54The host: Enjoy the game.