Luka Dončić averaged 33.5 points a night last season and the Lakers still won 53 games. But under JJ Redick, the same team ranked 19th in defensive rating, a gap between force and control that this season will test first.
The Gap Behind 53 Wins
Last season the Lakers finished 53-29, a net rating of plus-1.5 that ranked just 14th in the league. The offense carried it, ranking 10th, built on Dončić's 33.5 points, 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds a night, with Austin Reaves adding 23.3 points and 5.5 assists. The defense ranked 19th, at a pace of 99.2 possessions, a wide split between the two ends of the floor.
The Case For Outscoring It
Redick's roster gives him firepower to make defense optional. Quentin Grimes scored 13.4 points a game across 75 games at 33.4 percent on threes, Collin Sexton scored 15.4 points at 40.1 percent on threes, and Jake LaRavia played all 82 games, hitting 32.1 percent on threes. Walker Kessler, in five games last season, averaged 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds a night, making 75.0 percent of his threes on a small sample. If that group shoots the way it did, the Lakers can win most nights by simply scoring more than the other team, the way Dončić and Reaves carried them to 53 wins.
The Answer Redick Needs
The counter sits in the same numbers. A defense that ranked 19th while the offense ranked 10th is not a formula that holds up against the league's best in the postseason, when possessions tighten and stars get schemed for. Jarred Vanderbilt and Matisse Thybulle are the roster's defensive specialists, but neither cracked last season's scoring list, and Kessler's sample is five games. Dončić has already shown he can average 33.5 points and still lose the possession battle on the other end. The Lakers do not need to become a great defense this season; they need Kessler's five games to turn into a full one, and Vanderbilt and Thybulle to hold up, because outscoring people worked for 53 wins last season and still left the defense 19th. That is the bet Redick is making, and it is why the defense, not the offense, decides how far this roster goes.
What was the Lakers' defensive rating last season?
The Lakers ranked 19th in defensive rating last season at 115.5, against a 117.0 offensive rating that ranked 10th, for a net rating of plus-1.5, 14th in the league.
What does Walker Kessler bring to the Lakers' front line?
Kessler averaged 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and shot 75.0 percent on threes in five games last season, a small sample the Lakers need to see repeat over a full season.
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