Denver's Math Problem Hides Behind Last Season's Net Rating
The ratings and lineups that made Denver dangerous belong to a team that has since lost pieces, and the bill for keeping the rest has come due.
Denver is 0-0 ahead of an October 22 opener at Oklahoma City, so every rating below is a last-season number carried into a changed roster. The two figures that matter most right now are a $221.1 million payroll parked above the first apron and a stretch of draft picks mostly signed away to the Thunder.
What last season's ratings actually say
Denver's offense ran at a 121.2 rating last season, the best mark in the league, while the defense settled at 116.0, closer to average. The difference, a net rating of 5.2, ranked seventh in the NBA on a pace of 99.5. That gap between an elite offense and an ordinary defense is exactly what a 54-28 record looks like: good enough to win a lot of games, not proof of anything greater until this year's numbers exist.
The five-man group that won every minute it played
The best lineup on the roster last season, by net rating, was Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Cameron Johnson, Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones: plus-20.1 over 171 minutes across 13 games, an offense scoring 136.7 per 100 possessions. It is also a lineup that cannot run it back. Watson is no longer with the team, so that specific combination, and whatever chemistry produced that number, has to be rebuilt with someone else in his place.
The two numbers doing the heavy lifting
Jokić averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists last season; Murray averaged 25.4 points and 7.1 assists on 43.5 percent shooting from three. Those two lines are the foundation every other number on this roster is built around, and neither has changed hands this offseason. What has moved is around them: Bruce Brown, part of the rotation, left for the Knicks on September 16, and Aaron Gordon's health status flipped from day-to-day to cleared and back to day-to-day on September 13, without resolution since.
A payroll that leaves little to spend
Denver carries a $221.1 million payroll, above the $200.4 million luxury tax line and into the first apron, with Jokić's $59.0 million and Murray's $50.1 million alone accounting for half of it. The picture ahead is just as tight: Denver's 2028, 2029 and 2030 first-round picks are all protected to Oklahoma City. The math that built a champion is now the same math limiting how the front office can react if the group in place does not hold up.
Has Denver played a game yet this season?
No. The Nuggets are 0-0 heading into their regular-season opener on October 22 at Oklahoma City.
Is last season's best Nuggets lineup still together?
Not fully. The top lineup by net rating included Peyton Watson, who is no longer on Denver's roster.
