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The Parquet Report · Rumor check

A Confidence Score Doubled for a Transaction Already Over

Caleb Grill left Boston September 15. The report on his signing didn't move until October 2.

By the Celtics Nightly Desk · Friday, October 2

Five rumor reports touch the Celtics this offseason, and their confidence scores do not track what actually happened. The clearest signal came from a report that was already confirmed before the move it predicted; the murkiest came from one revised upward two weeks after its subject was gone.

38 to 79: Grill report swing
1

The Fischer tip beat the signing announcement for reliability.

Jake Fischer reported interest in Devin Carter on September 11 at a confidence score of 75, already marked confirmed. Carter signed three days later. The report announcing that signing carries a confidence score of just 24, still open. The number attached to the rumor outranked the number attached to the outcome.

2

A closed transaction got a higher score two weeks after closing.

Caleb Grill signed a training camp deal September 14 and left the team September 15. The report confirming that deal, via Paul Garcia, sat at a confidence score of 38 for more than two weeks. On October 2 it jumped to 79, still marked open, for a move that had already ended. A rising score on a settled matter says nothing new about Grill. It says the scoring moves on its own schedule.

3

The Hank Morgan report never caught up to the transaction.

Boston signed and waived Hank Morgan on September 11. That report sits at a confidence score of 21, open, the lowest of the five tracked here, with no follow-up since. Call it noise: the business concluded and the number never adjusted to match.

4

A confirmed grouping can still carry no Celtics detail.

The September 24 Minor Transactions roundup marked Boston confirmed alongside the Jazz, Nuggets, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves and Cavaliers, with nothing specific to Boston attached. Confirmed means something occurred, not that it was described. With a $203.9 million payroll already above the $200.4 million luxury tax line, a trade rumor would need to clear that ledger before it is worth grading. None currently proposes one.

Is Devin Carter actually on the Celtics roster?

Yes. Carter signed September 14, which a second report confirmed that day, and he is listed on Boston's training camp roster now.

What happened with Caleb Grill's signing?

Grill signed a training camp deal September 14 and left the team September 15. The report tracking that deal did not move to a confidence score of 79 until October 2, after he was already gone.

By the Celtics Nightly Desk, written from the club's data and the reports on file, with every name and number checked against them. How the desks work.

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