Training camp produced five logged reports between September 11 and September 24, and the confidence scores attached to them did not sort cleanly by what came true. Boston's actual payroll news is simpler than any of them: a $203.9M roster already past the $200.4M luxury threshold, with camp deals too small to move that number.
The two highest-scored reports split on outcome.
Jake Fischer's September 11 report of Celtics interest in Devin Carter carried a confidence score of 75 and was marked confirmed; Carter signed three days later, on September 14. Paul Garcia's report on Caleb Grill's training camp deal, filed that same day, carried the identical score of 75. Grill left the team a day after it closed. Same number, opposite shelf life.
The lowest scores described deals that had already closed.
The Hank Morgan sign-and-waive and the formal Devin Carter signing report each carried a confidence of 20, the lowest marks logged this stretch, despite both describing moves that were already done by the time they were filed. On this evidence, the score tracked how much a reporter could confirm at the moment of filing, not how likely the move was to happen.
None of these moves touch the number that actually matters.
Boston's payroll stands at $203.9M against a $200.4M luxury threshold, a gap built by free agency decisions, not by training camp paperwork. Carter, Grill and Morgan all moved on camp or minimum-salary terms that barely register against that math, and Boston still remains below the $209.0M first apron that would further restrict trade flexibility. The two-way spot open since September 12 would cost less still, if a name ever attaches to it.
A September 24 roundup added six names and zero facts.
That report filed Boston alongside the Jazz, Nuggets, Spurs, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves and Cavaliers under a single 'Minor Transactions' heading, marked confirmed without one Celtics-specific detail attached. Confirmed, in that context, describes the genre of the report, not a fact about this roster.
Did training camp signings move Boston's luxury tax number?
No. Devin Carter, Caleb Grill and Hank Morgan all moved on camp, two-way or minimum-salary paperwork, which barely shifts a payroll already at $203.9M against a $200.4M threshold.
Why did reports marked confirmed carry lower confidence scores than ones that fell apart?
The scores tracked how much could be verified at the moment of filing, not how long a move would last. Caleb Grill's 75-confidence deal lasted a day, while the 20-confidence reports on Carter and Morgan described moves that had already closed.
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