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No Lottery Tickets Left: The Price of the Lakers' Doncic Window

Thin on future picks and over the tax threshold, the Lakers are financing this title bet year by year.

Luka Doncic$49.8M this season, $53.8M in 2027-28 — the two biggest numbers on the books both years.
By the Lakers Nightly Desk · Wednesday, October 14

Los Angeles carries a $201.3 million payroll into a season that hasn't tipped off yet, already beyond the league's tax threshold and climbing toward numbers that only grow heavier next year. The championship math here isn't about one contract — it's about every pick the front office has already spent to build around it.

Luka Doncic of the Lakers
Luka Doncic. Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

Where the Money Sits

The payroll stands at $201.3 million, clear of the $200.4 million tax threshold but under the $209.0 million first apron — a buffer that keeps Los Angeles out of the strictest roster rules for now. Five contracts carry the weight: Luka Doncic at $49.8 million, Austin Reaves at $41.2 million, Walker Kessler at $30.2 million, Quentin Grimes at $14.0 million and Sandro Mamukelashvili at $13.0 million. Between the four thresholds — a $165.0 million salary cap, the $200.4 million tax threshold, the $209.0 million first apron and the $221.7 million second apron — the Lakers have room to maneuver, but not much before the harshest penalties begin.

The Raises Ahead

Next season's numbers already climb higher. Doncic is owed $53.8 million in 2027-28, Reaves $44.5 million, Kessler $31.7 million and Grimes $14.7 million, with Mamukelashvili due $12.3 million and Sexton $9.8 million. Vanderbilt holds a $13.3 million player option, Hardy and Bronny James carry team options, and Thiero's $2.5 million team option is the cheapest decision on a payroll that otherwise only rises.

Picks Already Spent

Future flexibility runs just as thin. The 2027 first-round pick is protected to Memphis, the 2027 second conditional to Brooklyn, both 2028 rounds tied up in swaps, the 2029 first owed to Dallas and the 2029 second to Memphis, the 2030 first another swap and the 2030 second owed to Brooklyn. There is no lottery escape hatch here — every addition from now on has to come through trades of current players or minimum-salary signings, not draft capital the front office still controls.

Are the Lakers over the luxury tax this season?

Yes. The $201.3 million payroll clears the $200.4 million tax threshold, though it stays under the $209.0 million first apron.

Do the Lakers still own their future first-round picks?

Barely. The 2027 first is protected to Memphis, the 2029 first is owed to Dallas, and both 2028 and 2030 are tied up in pick swaps.

By the Lakers Nightly Desk, written from the club's data and the reports on file, with every name and number checked against them. How the desks work.

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