Paolo Banchero enters his fourth season as the player every Orlando possession runs through, coming off 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists a game. At 23 and with $41.5M on the books this year, the question is no longer whether he can carry the offense but whether he can carry it well.
The volume is already there and the efficiency is not.
Banchero played 72 games last season at 34.7 minutes a night and finished with 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists. That line is the output of a true No. 1 option. The inputs are the problem. He shot 45.9% from the field, 30.5% from three on 3.8 attempts a game and 77.5% at the line, which adds up to a 56.6% true shooting mark. For a forward who gets to the basket as often as he does, that is a middling number. The free throw percentage is fine. The three is what holds the whole profile down, and he keeps taking nearly four of them a game.
His minutes did not move the scoreboard last season.
Orlando posted a 114.0 offensive rating and a 114.1 defensive rating with Banchero on the floor, a net of -0.2. The team as a whole finished at 0.6 across a 45-37 season. A franchise player should be the reason the lineup math tilts, and last season it did not tilt in either direction. Part of that is the 3.1 turnovers a game, which drain possessions from an offense that already needed every one. His 23.5% assist rate shows he is reading the floor. The decisions after the read are where the giveaways come from.
The contract makes the standard non-negotiable.
Banchero's deal runs $41.5M this season, $44.8M next, $48.1M in 2028-29 and $51.5M in 2029-30, with a $54.8M player option after that. He is the second-largest number on a $218.1M payroll that sits above the first apron and well past the $200.4M tax line. Orlando has already spent its 2028 first on Portland and its 2030 first on Memphis. There is no plan B tucked away in future picks. The roster is built on the assumption that the player on this contract becomes a top-tier two-way forward, and that assumption gets tested starting Wednesday.
He opens the season healthy while the rest of the core is not.
Banchero is healthy going into the Hawks game on October 21. Franz Wagner's right shoulder, Anthony Black's right ankle and Jase Richardson's back are all still unresolved with an estimated return of opening night, and Noah Penda is sidelined by a hamstring tear until at least mid-November. If Wagner misses time, the usage on Banchero climbs further. He scored 24 in each of the last two preseason wins over Cleveland and Miami, which is the version Orlando needs. The verdict for this season is simple: he has to turn a 27.4% usage into a true shooting number that justifies it, cut the turnovers, and make the on-court net rating a positive figure. Anything less and the ceiling of this roster stays exactly where it was.
What did Paolo Banchero average last season for the Magic?
Banchero averaged 22.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists in 72 games last season, shooting 45.9% from the field and 30.5% from three.
How much is Paolo Banchero making in 2026-27?
Banchero earns $41.5M this season, with his deal rising to $44.8M, $48.1M and $51.5M in the following years and a $54.8M player option for 2030-31.
