Dallas finished 26-56 last season with the offense ranked 27th and the defense 19th, and the roster around Cooper Flagg has lost Dwight Powell while Lively and Aldama sit on the injury report. The question that decides this season is whether Flagg's second year can lift a team that cannot shoot and cannot yet count on its centers.
Why Flagg can carry it
Flagg averaged 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 70 games as a rookie, and Dallas exercised his third-year option on October 17 without hesitation. The proof that he lifts a team sits in last season's lineup numbers. The group of Washington, Gafford, Williams, Christie and Flagg played 73 minutes across 14 games and came out at +2.2, scoring at a 116.8 clip against a team-wide offensive rating of 110.3. Christie hit 40.4 percent of his threes and Risacher 36.8, the two shooters who make Flagg's drives count. Add Irving, who scored 17 in the 132-115 preseason win in Houston on October 11 and 18 against Atlanta on October 16, and the top of the rotation is better than a 26-56 team.
Why the roster says no
Last season's offense ranked 27th and the defense 19th, a -5.2 net rating that Harrison's defense-first pitch has not fixed. The shooting is the problem. Flagg made 29.5 percent of his threes, Marshall 29.1, Washington 32.5, and the one forward who hit 35.0, Aldama, has been on the injury report with a knee issue since October 9. Mavs Moneyball reported his return timeframe remains a mystery. Lively has had no update since the September 23 report that he was not cleared for camp, and Mavs Moneyball reported that Dallas passed on his extension. Powell was waived this week, leaving Gafford and Cisse as the centers who have played. Payroll sits at $197.9 million against a $200.4 million tax line, and the first-round picks through 2030 are owed or swapped. The 111-135 loss to Atlanta came with Flagg scoring 26 and grabbing 12 rebounds, which tells you how little help he had.
The verdict for 2026-27
Flagg alone does not get Dallas out of this. The second-most-used Flagg group last season, with Marshall in place of Williams, played 92 minutes and landed at -0.6, so swapping one shooter for a non-shooter erased the whole edge. That is the season in one number. May has to keep Christie and Risacher on the floor with Flagg and Gafford and hope Aldama's knee clears. The opener shows the gap. Houston went 52-30 last season with a 5.4 net rating, Durant at 26.0 points and Sengun at 20.4 points and 8.9 rebounds, and the Rockets carry five days of rest to Dallas's four. The honest answer is a climb toward respectability, not a return to the playoffs, unless the shooting around Flagg changes.
Is Cooper Flagg under contract with the Mavericks for next season?
Yes. Dallas exercised his third-year option on October 17, which keeps him in Dallas through the 2027-28 season.
Who is hurt for the Mavericks ahead of the opener in Houston?
Lively, Aldama, Biberovic and Howard are all listed with a return date of October 21, so none is ruled out yet. Lively has had no reported update since September 23, when he was not cleared for camp.
