Oklahoma City enters a title defense with the league's best net rating from last season intact but its closing margin shrinking fast. The answer to whether this group repeats sits less with its stars than with the moves still unresolved beneath them.
The Case For Repeating
The core that won it all last season returns mostly intact. Oklahoma City finished 64-18 with a net rating of 11.1, built on the No. 1 defense in the league and a top-ten offense, scoring 117.6 points per hundred against a 106.5 mark allowed. Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell were all drafted by Oklahoma City, and general manager Sam Presti added Jared McCain by trade from Philadelphia last season without disturbing that top five. Holmgren and Jalen Williams top the books at $41.5 million each, Gilgeous-Alexander comes in at $40.8 million, while Hartenstein checks in lower at $23.1 million and Caruso rounds out the group at $19.6 million. That continuity, not a reshuffled roster, is the strongest argument for a second banner.
The Case For Caution
The ledger carries strain too. Payroll reached $216.2 million, above the $209.0 million first apron and above the $200.4 million luxury tax line, which narrows how Presti can patch a weakness that shows up in-season. The record stayed strong all year, yet the margin that averaged 11.1 points over the full season fell to +2.0 per game across the final ten outings. Depth faced its own test separately: with a teammate out over three games, Caruso logged ten more minutes a night and McCain eleven more, a sign of how thin the bench got when one piece stepped away.
Where This Settles
The bottom of the roster still needs sorting. Robert McCray V, Zhaire Smith and Andrew Holifield all joined September 26, and their roles remain unresolved; Christoph Tilly's Exhibit 10 deal from September 14 has not yet turned into a guaranteed spot. Oklahoma City also traded away outright control of its 2027 and 2028 picks for swap rights, keeping only 2029 and 2030 as picks it fully owns. None of that outweighs a healthy top of the roster: Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Jalen Williams, joined by Mitchell and Hartenstein, both cleared from day-to-day on October 1. The favorite tag holds, but the apron-level roster's depth will be tested before its stars are.
Is Oklahoma City over the luxury tax this season?
Yes. The payroll sits at $216.2 million, above both the first apron and the $200.4 million luxury tax line.
Has Christoph Tilly made the Thunder's roster?
Not yet. He signed an Exhibit 10 contract on September 14, and whether it turns into a regular spot is still unresolved.
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