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The Long View · By the numbers

Golden State's Books Say Contender. The Numbers Underneath Don't.

The Warriors are paying like a team built to win now, but last season's ratings and Sunday's box score still describe a roster searching for form.

By the Warriors Nightly Desk · Monday, October 5

Golden State opened preseason with a 101-104 loss at the Clippers, its bench outscoring the starters by 46 points. The numbers around that result, from payroll to net rating, point in two different directions.

Warriors Nightly artwork
Illustration by Hoops Nightly.

What $223.3 Million Buys

Golden State carries a payroll of $223.3 million, above the $221.7 million second apron and the $200.4 million luxury tax line. Curry ($62.6 million), Jimmy Butler ($56.8 million), Draymond Green ($27.7 million) and Kristaps Porzingis ($19.5 million) carry the bulk of it. That number says ownership is paying for a core built to win immediately. It does not say the roster is deep enough to do it; the aprons also restrict how the front office can patch holes in-season.

What -0.5 Says

Last season's net rating was -0.5, 20th of 30 teams, with an offense that ranked 19th and a defense that ranked 16th. That number is the clearest measure of how far a 37-45 team actually sat from contention. It does not say this season starts there too; the roster has turned over at the margins, and health, not shooting, decided large stretches of last season.

Sunday's Split

In the preseason opener, a 101-104 loss at the Clippers, Golden State's bench scored 72 points to the starters' 26. Curry played 13 minutes and finished at -14; four reserves, led by Brandon Williams at +16, kept the game within reach into the final seconds. That split says the bench carried the offense. It does not say the bench will do that against teams playing their regular rotations, not a lineup makeshift for one night in Hawaii.

A Lineup Without Curry Outscored One With Him

Two lineups last season shared four of five names: Butler, Green, Moody and Post. With Podziemski at the fifth spot, that group was a net +2.3 over 12 games. With Curry there instead, it was a net -6.5 over 17 games. Both samples are small enough that one hot or cold stretch could swing them. What the gap does not prove is that Curry is the problem; what it does say is that Kerr has more than one base unit worth testing again this fall.

Is Stephen Curry's contract situation with the Warriors resolved?

On paper, yes — HoopsRumors reported September 25 that Curry agreed to a new extension with the team, though no salary or option terms have been reported since.

Why did the Warriors lose their preseason opener to the Clippers?

Golden State's bench outscored the starters 72-26, but the closing group couldn't hold a late lead, and Curry finished at -14 in just 13 minutes.

By the Warriors Nightly Desk, written from the club's data and the reports on file, with every name and number checked against them. How the desks work.

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