The Warriors Capped Out to Win Now. What Happens If Someone Gets Hurt?
Golden State paid past the luxury line to keep its core together, but with almost nothing left to spend or trade, health will decide this season more than scheme will.
The Warriors carry $223.3 million in salary, past the $200.4 million tax line, to keep Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis in the same locker room one more year. That spending leaves little behind it: two rotation pieces are already out, and a third's situation remains unexplained.
What the spending bought
Golden State enters this season carrying $223.3 million in salary, above the $200.4 million luxury tax line and the second apron the front office has already crossed. Curry ($62.6M), Butler ($56.8M), Green ($27.7M) and Porzingis ($19.5M) account for most of it. The math reads like a contender: a 17th-year Curry who averaged 26.6 points over 43 games last season, paired with Butler, who averaged 20.0 points in the 38 games he played. The front office chose continuity over flexibility, betting the same names can do more than last season's 37-45 finish.
Who's already down
That bet is being tested before the regular season even opens. Butler is out with a right knee issue and not expected back until January 2, 2027. Moody, who averaged 12.1 points last season, is out with a left knee injury with an estimated return of December 1. Porzingis, limited to 32 games last season by health trouble, has had an undisclosed issue since Anthony Slater first reported it on September 28, with no update since. Three rotation pieces are compromised before tonight's preseason game with the Lakers.
The depth behind them
The fill-ins are the same names who carried extra minutes during last season's slide: Podziemski (13.8 points over 82 games), Melton (12.3 points in 49 games) and Williams (13.0 points in 66 games) all played starter-sized roles when the top of the roster broke down. They held up fine for stretches, but that version of the team still finished with a net rating ranked 20th of 30. Covering for Butler into January is a different problem than covering for a few games in March.
The honest answer
Golden State has already answered whether it believes in this core: it spent past the apron to keep it whole, with little room left to add anything if health or results turn against it. That makes attrition the real swing factor this season, not schedule or scheme. If Butler, Porzingis and Moody are back and healthy by spring, the spending looks justified. If not, the same group that went 37-45 last season will be defending a roster built to win now, with reinforcements years away through picks the team still owns outright in 2027 and 2028.
Is Jimmy Butler expected back this season?
Yes, with an estimated return date of January 2, 2027, well into the regular season.
Why does Golden State's payroll matter this season?
At $223.3 million, it sits above the NBA's second apron and the $200.4 million tax line, which limits the team's ability to add help if the roster needs it.
