Golden State's Real Deadline Is December 1, Not the Payroll
The real test for this Warriors season isn't the tax bill, it's whether an aging core can still win once Jimmy Butler III as well as Moses Moody return healthy in December.
Golden State finished last season 37-45 with a net rating of -0.5, and the roster that produced that record is now a year older, with Stephen Curry at 38, Jimmy Butler III at 37 and Draymond Green at 36. Butler's return is estimated for December 1, Moody's for the same date, so the front office will not see its real roster on the floor until nearly two months of games are gone.
The Roster Still Has Its Moments
When healthy last season, Golden State's best five-man group outscored opponents by 16.9 points per 100 possessions over eight games, an offense at 119.7 and a defense at 102.8. Stephen Curry averaged 26.6 points over 43 games, and Jimmy Butler III added 20.0 points over 38, evidence the top of this roster still plays like a contender's core when it's on the floor together.
The Record Says Otherwise
Golden State finished 37-45, a net rating of -0.5 that put the roster 20th of 30 teams, with the offense 19th and the defense 16th. The same top lineup that posted a plus-16.9 net rating over eight games sat alongside one that finished minus-6.5 over 17 games, a sign that the roster's ceiling and its floor were both real last season, not just its peak.
December Now Sets the Terms
Butler is out with a right knee issue; Moses Moody is out with a left knee issue as well, both with an estimated return of December 1. Curry, at 38, Butler, at 37, and Draymond Green, at 36, make up the core the front office is betting on, and none of that bet gets tested until two of its five best players are back on the floor together.
How Many Runs Are Left
The payroll sits at $223.3 million against a $200.4 million luxury tax line, and the front office spent the summer keeping this exact group together rather than opening cap space. That choice already answers part of the question: ownership believes the current core is still worth paying for. The real answer arrives only once Butler and Moody are both back and the results start counting, sometime after December 1.
When are the Warriors' two injured wings expected to return?
Jimmy Butler III is estimated to return around December 1. Moses Moody carries that same December 1 timeline.
What was the Warriors' record and net rating last season?
Golden State finished 37-45 with a net rating of -0.5, ranking 20th of 30 teams overall.
